NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dallas Goedert TE

PHI vs CAR · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

34.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 39.7
Graph avg: 38.5
Graph median: 32.54–110
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Targets5.3▼-0.2

Rec3.7▼-0.3

Rec Yds39.7▲+0.7

Rec TD0.7▼-0.1

Snaps38.0▼-15.4

Snap %63.0%▼-22.1

34.5

2024

27

Feb 09
2025

44

Sep 04
33

Sep 21
37

Sep 28
19

Oct 05
110

Oct 09
18

Oct 19
28

Oct 26
43

Nov 10
24

Nov 16
20

Nov 23
27

Nov 28
78

Dec 08
70

Dec 14
32

Dec 20
8

Dec 28
33

Jan 11
2026

77

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
38

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 50% 9/18 · avg 41.9
Away 53% 8/15 · avg 46.6
vs CAR No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 24.5 70% 14/20
O 29.5 55% 11/20
O 34.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 39.5 30% 6/20
O 44.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs CAR

What CAR allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds51.2#17
Receptions4.7#18
Targets7.3#16
Yds/Target7.0#19
Rec TD0.7#6

TEs vs CAR · 2026

Each main TE who faced CAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.6

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Sam LaPorta	84	58.0	+45%
Sep 27	Harold Fannin Jr.	51	26.5	+92%
Sep 20	Kyle Pitts	15	23.5	-36%
Sep 13	Colston Loveland	0	27.5	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.4 yds	2%14.2 yds	10%12.5 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	16%6.4 yds	36%4.0 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CAR defense

CAR defense: Throws CAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.1 yds#6	5%12.2 yds#25	6%10.2 yds#20
Short	28%4.9 yds#29	24%8.5 yds#7	31%5.3 yds#19

Throws CAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%18.0 yds	0%	2%17.0 yds
Short	31%4.9 yds	20%8.4 yds	42%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	5	5.6	28	19.5%
3	Dallas Goedert TE	3	5.3	16	17.6%
4	Makai Lemon WR	5	4.4	22	16.0%
5	Dameon Pierce RB	1	5.0	5	13.5%
6	Zach Ertz TE	3	2.7	8	9.8%
7	Darius Cooper WR	5	2.6	13	9.0%
8	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
9	Will Shipley RB	5	1.6	8	5.6%
10	Johnny Mundt TE	4	1.2	5	3.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ JAX	38	Over	41.5	43 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	4	Under	39.5	19 (25%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	77	Over	38.5	52 (95%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	33	Under	18.5	67 (92%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	8	Under	8.5	43 (80%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	32	Under	32.5	61 (87%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	70	Over	70.5	51 (74%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	78	Over	53.5	66 (93%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	27	Under	10.5	48 (89%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	20	Under	25.5	58 (92%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	24	Under	24.5	65 (90%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	43	Over	—	54 (86%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	28	Under	51.5	37 (63%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	18	Under	41.5	49 (98%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	110	Over	85.5	51 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	19	Under	32.5	48 (79%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	37	Over	40.5	43 (75%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	33	Under	32.5	61 (91%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	44	Over	39.5	52 (83%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	27	Under	—	62 (84%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 34.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 5m ago.