NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Matthew Stafford QB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

284.5 Pass Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 314.4
Graph avg: 285.6
Graph median: 280.5130–457
Over the close: 50%10/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds314.4▲+32.2

Att43.2▲+7.4

Cmp%64.4%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.8▼-0.8

INT1.2▲+0.8

Rush Yds4.2▲+3.4

Snaps73.0▲+6.4

Snap %96.8%▼-2.0

284.5

2025

181

Oct 12
182

Oct 19
281

Nov 02
280

Nov 09
130

Nov 16
273

Nov 23
243

Nov 30
281

Dec 07
368

Dec 14
457

Dec 18
269

Dec 29
259

Jan 04
304

Jan 10
258

Jan 18
374

Jan 25
2026

155

Sep 10
327

Sep 21
390

Sep 27
317

Oct 04
383

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 284.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 267.6
Away 44% 10/23 · avg 267.7
vs ARI 0% 0/4 · avg 236.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 264.5 65% 13/20
O 274.5 55% 11/20
O 284.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 294.5 40% 8/20
O 304.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds258.8#4
Yds/Att8.3#3
Cmp%66.1%#10
Pass TD2.8#1
Pass Att31.0#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+32.9

Avg diff %+18%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jared Goff	271	303.5	-11%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	250	185.0	+35%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	297	224.8	+32%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	209	182.0	+15%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	17%8.0 yds	33%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 284.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	383	Over	280.5	82 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	317	Over	249.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	390	Over	236.5	86 (100%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	327	Over	240.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	155	Under	258.5	51 (84%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	374	Over	255.5	61 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	258	Under	263.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	304	Over	274.5	76 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	259	Under	259.5	72 (96%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	269	Under	300.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	457	Over	228.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	368	Over	280.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	281	Under	303.5	58 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	243	Under	265.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	273	Under	285.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	130	Under	130.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	280	Under	265.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	281	Under	295.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	182	Under	160.5	67 (96%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	181	Under	185.5	53 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 281.5Underdog 299.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.