NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Emeka Egbuka WR

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

36.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 59%13/22 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 38.4
Graph avg: 51.4
Graph median: 40.08–163
Over the close: 41%9/22

2026 per game

Targets6.6▼-0.9

Rec4.2▲+0.5

Rec Yds38.4▼-16.8

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps55.8▲+3.7

Snap %85.8%▲+8.2

36.5

2025

67

Sep 07
29

Sep 15
85

Sep 21
101

Sep 28
163

Oct 05
24

Oct 12
58

Oct 20
35

Oct 26
115

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
32

Nov 23
42

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
64

Dec 11
40

Dec 21
20

Dec 28
8

Jan 03
2026

63

Sep 13
16

Sep 20
62

Sep 27
13

Oct 04
38

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 49.5
Away 64% 7/11 · avg 53.2
vs PIT No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 26.5 73% 16/22
O 31.5 68% 15/22
O 36.5 Today 59% 13/22
O 41.5 46% 10/22
O 46.5 41% 9/22

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds151.9#11
Receptions10.4#19
Targets17.0#19
Yds/Target8.9#7
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-11.7

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Josh Downs	47	50.5	-7%
Oct 11	Keenan Allen	45	33.3	+35%
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	89	60.2	+48%
Oct 01	Isaiah Bond	2	42.0	-95%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	90	83.2	+8%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	98	47.8	+105%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	18	63.7	-72%
Sep 20	DeMario Douglas	9	34.5	-74%
Sep 13	Drake London	29	114.8	-75%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	19	32.5	-42%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%2.1 yds	7%10.0 yds	8%8.6 yds
Short	24%6.7 yds	17%6.8 yds	27%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 22 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	38	Over	35.5	64 (89%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	13	Under	37.5	59 (94%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	62	Over	49.5	51 (74%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	16	Under	52.5	56 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	63	Over	55.5	49 (86%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	8	Under	12.5	39 (58%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	20	Under	20.5	39 (58%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	40	Over	40.5	36 (56%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	64	Over	55.5	44 (64%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	15	Under	55.5	65 (88%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	42	Over	42.5	52 (85%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LA	32	Under	68.5	63 (90%)
2025-11-16	11	@ BUF	40	Over	59.5	66 (94%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	115	Over	105.5	61 (88%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NO	35	Under	35.5	51 (88%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	58	Over	33.5	52 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	24	Under	55.5	28 (53%)
2025-10-05	5	@ SEA	163	Over	61.5	52 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	101	Over	101.5	64 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	85	Over	39.5	46 (64%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	29	Under	29.5	74 (92%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	67	Over	58.5	54 (93%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.