NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Darnell Washington TE

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

21.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 41%13/32 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 26.2
Graph avg: 22.0
Graph median: 15.00–67
Over the close: 62%10/16

2026 per game

Targets3.2▼-0.1

Rec2.2▼-0.2

Rec Yds26.2▼-1.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps43.2▲+7.0

Snap %65.4%▲+4.9

21.5

2024

5

Sep 08
5

Sep 15
31

Sep 29
5

Oct 06
9

Oct 13
36

Oct 20
29

Oct 28
6

Nov 10
42

Nov 17
14

Nov 21
10

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
8

Dec 25
9

Jan 11
2025

0

Sep 14
20

Sep 28
62

Oct 12
2

Oct 16
43

Nov 02
15

Nov 09
67

Nov 16
22

Nov 23
45

Nov 30
12

Dec 07
25

Dec 15
36

Dec 21
15

Dec 28
2026

18

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
67

Sep 27
27

Oct 01
12

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 56% 9/16 · avg 29.9
Away 25% 4/16 · avg 14.1
vs TB No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 11.5 62% 20/32
O 16.5 47% 15/32
O 21.5 Today 41% 13/32
O 26.5 34% 11/32
O 31.5 25% 8/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs TB

What TB allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds68.8#5
Receptions6.5#5
Targets8.7#4
Yds/Target7.9#7
Rec TD0.9#5

TEs vs TB · 2026

Each main TE who faced TB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.1

Avg diff %+43%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Jake Ferguson	19	20.8	-8%
Oct 04	Tucker Kraft	42	42.5	-1%
Sep 27	T.J. Hockenson	11	47.8	-77%
Sep 20	Harold Fannin Jr.	54	25.8	+110%
Sep 13	Mike Gesicki	78	27.0	+189%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	6%23.5 yds	0%
Short	16%8.0 yds	23%8.6 yds	52%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	12	Under	22.5	38 (63%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	27	Over	16.5	51 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	67	Over	13.5	47 (76%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	7	Under	14.5	37 (53%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	18	Under	16.5	43 (64%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	15	Under	25.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	36	Over	23.5	50 (68%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	25	Over	25.5	48 (73%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	12	Under	15.5	15 (29%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	45	Over	10.5	34 (79%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	22	Over	13.5	49 (68%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	67	Over	65.5	46 (71%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	15	Under	12.5	25 (48%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	43	Over	12.5	41 (66%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	2	Under	10.5	36 (63%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	62	Over	50.5	47 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	20	Under	—	48 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	0	Under	—	23 (37%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ BAL	9	Under	—	21 (46%)
2024-12-25	17	vs KC	8	Under	—	26 (35%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CLE	0	Under	—	38 (58%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CIN	10	Under	—	34 (49%)
2024-11-21	12	@ CLE	14	Under	—	38 (55%)
2024-11-17	11	vs BAL	42	Over	—	45 (58%)
2024-11-10	10	@ WAS	6	Under	—	50 (64%)
2024-10-28	8	vs NYG	29	Over	—	30 (45%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NYJ	36	Over	—	36 (53%)
2024-10-13	6	@ LV	9	Under	—	49 (73%)
2024-10-06	5	vs DAL	5	Under	—	30 (52%)
2024-09-29	4	@ IND	31	Over	—	40 (57%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DEN	5	Under	—	29 (44%)
2024-09-08	1	@ ATL	5	Under	—	37 (54%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.