NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trey McBride TE

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

64.5 Rec Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · All 60%23/38 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 61.6
Graph avg: 70.9
Graph median: 68.520–134
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Targets11.2▲+1.3

Rec8.4▲+1.0

Rec Yds61.6▼-11.3

Rec TD0.6-0.0

Snaps62.6▲+1.8

Snap %89.2%▼-2.2

64.5

2024

30

Sep 08
67

Sep 15
25

Sep 22
53

Oct 06
96

Oct 13
51

Oct 21
124

Oct 27
35

Nov 03
71

Nov 10
133

Nov 24
96

Dec 01
70

Dec 08
87

Dec 15
20

Dec 22
123

Dec 28
65

Jan 05
2025

61

Sep 07
78

Sep 14
43

Sep 21
52

Sep 25
41

Oct 05
72

Oct 12
74

Oct 19
55

Nov 03
127

Nov 09
115

Nov 16
79

Nov 23
82

Nov 30
58

Dec 07
134

Dec 14
27

Dec 21
76

Dec 28
65

Jan 04
2026

95

Sep 13
41

Sep 20
75

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
66

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 64.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 61.2
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 79.5
vs LAR 75% 3/4 · avg 78.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 76% 29/38
O 54.5 68% 26/38
O 64.5 Today 60% 23/38
O 74.5 40% 15/38
O 84.5 26% 10/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds34.9#30
Receptions4.1#29
Targets7.2#19
Yds/Target4.8#32
Rec TD0.3#20

TEs vs LAR · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-32.1

Avg diff %-26%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Dalton Kincaid	7	67.5	-90%
Oct 04	Zach Ertz	13	4.5	+189%
Sep 27	Evan Engram	0	26.8	-100%
Sep 21	Isaiah Likely	33	62.8	-47%
Sep 10	George Kittle	12	64.0	-81%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.2 yds	2%18.0 yds	8%6.8 yds
Short	26%5.2 yds	22%7.1 yds	38%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 64.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	66	Over	84.5	66 (90%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	31	Under	63.5	64 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	75	Over	69.5	79 (91%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	41	Under	60.5	44 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	95	Over	56.5	60 (80%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	65	Over	58.5	52 (95%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	76	Over	81.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	27	Under	33.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	134	Over	140.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	58	Under	70.5	60 (97%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	82	Over	68.5	54 (89%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	79	Over	75.5	74 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	115	Over	123.5	70 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	127	Over	61.5	64 (84%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	55	Under	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	74	Over	—	66 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	72	Over	76.5	66 (90%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	41	Under	60.5	61 (90%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	52	Under	65.5	64 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	43	Under	50.5	58 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	78	Over	70.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	61	Under	66.5	64 (97%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	65	Over	—	58 (89%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	123	Over	—	73 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	20	Under	—	65 (93%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	87	Over	—	64 (91%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	70	Over	—	67 (94%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	96	Over	—	77 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	133	Over	—	56 (97%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	71	Over	—	42 (71%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	35	Under	—	52 (90%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	124	Over	—	64 (97%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	51	Under	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ GB	96	Over	—	54 (93%)
2024-10-06	5	@ SF	53	Under	—	51 (88%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DET	25	Under	—	50 (85%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LA	67	Over	—	55 (83%)
2024-09-08	1	@ BUF	30	Under	—	52 (85%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5PrizePicks 64.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.