NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Luther Burden III WR

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

50.5 Rec Yds O -125U -108

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 51.7% Over

Season avg: 53.2
Graph avg: 58.9
Graph median: 54.024–138
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Targets7.0▲+2.6

Rec4.6▲+1.5

Rec Yds53.2▲+11.0

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps49.2▲+20.1

Snap %64.8%▲+23.0

50.5

2025

84

Dec 14
138

Dec 28
35

Jan 04
42

Jan 10
24

Jan 18
2026

63

Sep 13
32

Sep 20
61

Sep 28
63

Oct 04
47

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 50.5

Home 42% 5/12 · avg 46.5
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 42.6
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 40.5 70% 7/10
O 45.5 60% 6/10
O 50.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 55.5 50% 5/10
O 60.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds169.4#6
Receptions13.1#5
Targets21.6#1
Yds/Target7.8#19
Rec TD1.1#6

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.9

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	53	117.3	-55%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	62	42.8	+45%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	116	105.2	+10%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	54	49.5	+9%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	96	94.5	+2%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	100	74.2	+35%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	101	94.7	+7%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	66	78.0	-15%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	40	46.2	-14%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	26	40.5	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.8 yds	10%19.7 yds	7%4.4 yds
Short	26%7.7 yds	20%7.1 yds	30%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 50.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	47	Under	46.5	53 (77%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	63	Over	46.5	52 (56%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	61	Over	33.5	44 (61%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	32	Under	49.5	42 (57%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	63	Over	57.5	55 (73%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	24	Under	38.5	43 (53%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	42	Under	42.5	49 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	35	Under	35.5	34 (62%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	138	Over	119.5	38 (58%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	84	Over	87.5	26 (39%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 6m ago.