NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Colston Loveland TE

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

36.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 22.0
Graph avg: 48.6
Graph median: 39.00–137
Over the close: 58%11/19

2026 per game

Targets4.6▼-1.3

Rec2.6▼-1.3

Rec Yds22.0▼-28.3

Rec TD0.0▼-0.3

Snaps65.4▲+20.0

Snap %84.8%▲+19.4

36.5

2025

11

Oct 13
24

Oct 19
38

Oct 26
118

Nov 02
55

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
49

Nov 23
28

Nov 28
29

Dec 07
63

Dec 14
30

Dec 20
94

Dec 28
91

Jan 04
137

Jan 10
56

Jan 18
2026

0

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
31

Sep 28
57

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 54% 7/13 · avg 49.2
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 37.7
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 26.5 75% 15/20
O 31.5 55% 11/20
O 36.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 41.5 45% 9/20
O 46.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds62.0#7
Receptions5.9#9
Targets8.3#7
Yds/Target7.5#13
Rec TD0.5#10

TEs vs ATL · 2026

Each main TE who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.6

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Mark Andrews	28	37.2	-25%
Oct 05	Juwan Johnson	59	47.2	+25%
Sep 24	Tucker Kraft	26	46.5	-44%
Sep 20	Darren Waller	33	38.3	-14%
Sep 13	Pat Freiermuth	46	30.8	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%20.8 yds	9%5.7 yds	8%9.8 yds
Short	17%4.3 yds	29%6.0 yds	30%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	19	Under	39.5	55 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	57	Over	33.5	86 (92%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	31	Under	33.5	57 (79%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	3	Under	50.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	0	Under	55.5	65 (87%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	56	Over	56.5	53 (65%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	137	Over	95.5	63 (81%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	91	Over	44.5	50 (91%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	94	Over	79.5	54 (82%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	30	Under	30.5	53 (83%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	63	Over	29.5	43 (65%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	29	Under	—	41 (59%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	28	Under	28.5	51 (59%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	49	Over	49.5	42 (65%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	40	Over	20.5	56 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	55	Over	25.5	42 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	118	Over	60.5	65 (81%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	38	Over	34.5	51 (81%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	24	Under	10.5	46 (67%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	11	Under	5.5	27 (42%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5Underdog 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 17m ago.