NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kimani Vidal RB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

16.5 Rush Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 59%16/27 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 22.0
Graph avg: 34.0
Graph median: 20.00–126
Over the close: 50%6/12

2026 per game

Carries3.5▼-8.4

Rush Yds22.0▼-26.1

Rush TD0.2+0.0

Targets2.0▲+0.2

Rec1.0▼-0.3

Rec Yds6.0▼-5.1

Snaps19.2▼-19.1

Snap %28.0%▼-29.2

16.5

2024

11

Oct 13
10

Oct 21
16

Oct 27
7

Nov 03
20

Dec 01
34

Dec 08
9

Dec 15
24

Dec 19
24

Dec 28
2025

0

Sep 28
18

Oct 05
124

Oct 12
20

Oct 19
117

Oct 23
30

Nov 02
95

Nov 09
13

Nov 16
126

Nov 30
44

Dec 08
33

Dec 14
11

Dec 21
12

Jan 04
31

Jan 11
2026

0

Sep 20
6

Sep 27
25

Oct 04
57

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 16.5

Home 73% 8/11 · avg 47.8
Away 50% 8/16 · avg 24.4
vs KC 100% 2/2 · avg 33.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 6.5 89% 24/27
O 11.5 70% 19/27
O 16.5 Today 59% 16/27
O 21.5 48% 13/27
O 26.5 37% 10/27

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs KC

What KC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.5#19
Yds/Carry3.6#26
Rush TD0.6#16
Targets4.8#23
Rec Yds29.9#20

RBs vs KC · 2026

Each main RB who faced KC this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.9

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Ashton Jeanty	58	58.2	+0%
Sep 27	Ollie Gordon II	41	65.0	-37%
Sep 20	Jonathan Taylor	92	76.5	+20%
Sep 14	J.K. Dobbins	36	46.8	-23%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	0%	10%0.0 yds
Short	40%11.6 yds	15%6.7 yds	30%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 27 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 16.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	57	Over	4.5	28 (42%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	25	Over	—	25 (35%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	6	Under	—	17 (25%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	0	Under	—	7 (10%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	31	Over	31.5	56 (93%)
2026-01-04	18	@ DEN	12	Under	—	14 (20%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	11	Under	34.5	21 (33%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	33	Over	40.5	42 (64%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	44	Over	40.5	51 (69%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	126	Over	125.5	51 (76%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	13	Under	15.5	25 (52%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	95	Over	46.5	68 (93%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	30	Over	40.5	47 (72%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	117	Over	110.5	54 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	20	Over	20.5	49 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	124	Over	28.5	43 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	18	Over	—	14 (21%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	24	Over	—	9 (11%)
2024-12-19	16	vs DEN	24	Over	—	21 (32%)
2024-12-15	15	vs TB	9	Under	—	35 (67%)
2024-12-08	14	@ KC	34	Over	—	32 (53%)
2024-12-01	13	@ ATL	20	Over	—	12 (26%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	7	Under	—	11 (19%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	16	Under	—	11 (17%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	10	Under	—	18 (27%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	11	Under	—	19 (24%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 16.5Underdog 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.