NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jahan Dotson WR

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

23.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 30%11/37 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 29.8
Graph avg: 18.4
Graph median: 11.00–94
Over the close: 45%9/20

2026 per game

Targets3.4▲+1.1

Rec1.6▲+0.5

Rec Yds29.8▲+13.4

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps43.0▲+7.0

Snap %66.6%▲+9.3

23.5

2024

0

Sep 06
6

Sep 16
8

Sep 22
11

Sep 29
10

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
36

Nov 03
27

Nov 10
8

Nov 14
4

Nov 24
7

Dec 01
5

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
94

Jan 05
11

Jan 12
42

Feb 09
2025

59

Sep 04
4

Sep 14
7

Sep 21
0

Sep 28
24

Oct 05
17

Oct 09
40

Oct 26
0

Nov 10
43

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
12

Nov 28
3

Dec 08
13

Dec 20
0

Dec 28
40

Jan 04
0

Jan 11
2026

19

Sep 13
11

Sep 20
11

Sep 24
54

Oct 05
54

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 23.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 25.1
Away 12% 2/17 · avg 10.5
vs CHI 0% 0/1 · avg 12.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 13.5 35% 13/37
O 18.5 32% 12/37
O 23.5 Today 30% 11/37
O 28.5 24% 9/37
O 33.5 24% 9/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds182.7#2
Receptions12.3#7
Targets18.8#11
Yds/Target9.7#2
Rec TD1.1#7

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.2

Avg diff %+42%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Christian Watson	143	82.8	+73%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	123	68.5	+80%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	27	86.8	-69%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	73	19.5	+274%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	65	85.0	-24%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	32	57.0	-44%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	55	67.7	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	21	47.3	-56%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	75	103.3	-27%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	138	42.0	+229%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	18%3.2 yds	9%10.3 yds	27%7.8 yds
Short	15%6.0 yds	9%5.0 yds	21%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 23.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs BAL	54	Over	20.5	42 (66%)
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	54	Over	19.5	36 (63%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	11	Under	17.5	47 (66%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	11	Under	17.5	52 (75%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	19	Under	14.5	38 (63%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	0	Under	0.5	38 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	vs WAS	40	Over	30.5	60 (94%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	26 (48%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	13	Under	10.5	46 (66%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	3	Under	10.5	35 (49%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	12	Under	7.5	32 (59%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	0	Under	10.5	34 (54%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	43	Over	45.5	23 (32%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	0	Under	—	19 (30%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	40	Over	15.5	42 (71%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	17	Under	17.5	43 (75%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	24	Over	8.5	44 (72%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	0	Under	10.5	31 (54%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	7	Under	10.5	52 (78%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	4	Under	10.5	22 (37%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	59	Over	7.5	29 (46%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	42	Over	—	44 (59%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs GB	11	Under	—	34 (57%)
2025-01-05	18	vs NYG	94	Over	—	64 (94%)
2024-12-15	15	vs PIT	0	Under	—	36 (45%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CAR	5	Under	—	24 (41%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BAL	7	Under	—	36 (64%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LA	4	Under	—	50 (68%)
2024-11-14	11	vs WAS	8	Under	—	29 (41%)
2024-11-10	10	@ DAL	27	Over	—	30 (44%)
2024-11-03	9	vs JAX	36	Over	—	42 (53%)
2024-10-20	7	@ NYG	0	Under	—	38 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CLE	10	Under	—	22 (35%)
2024-09-29	4	@ TB	11	Under	—	49 (86%)
2024-09-22	3	@ NO	8	Under	—	63 (87%)
2024-09-16	2	vs ATL	6	Under	—	56 (79%)
2024-09-06	1	vs GB	0	Under	—	32 (42%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 23.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.