NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DeVonta Smith WR

PHI vs CAR · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

56.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 78.3
Graph avg: 64.8
Graph median: 53.08–183
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets9.0▲+2.1

Rec6.3▲+1.6

Rec Yds78.3▲+18.4

Rec TD0.3▲+0.1

Snaps56.3▲+3.3

Snap %94.3%▲+9.5

56.5

2025

53

Sep 14
60

Sep 21
29

Sep 28
114

Oct 05
49

Oct 09
183

Oct 19
84

Oct 26
69

Nov 10
8

Nov 16
89

Nov 23
48

Nov 28
37

Dec 08
50

Dec 14
42

Dec 20
25

Dec 28
52

Jan 04
70

Jan 11
2026

53

Sep 13
117

Sep 20
65

Sep 28
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 56.5

Home 50% 11/22 · avg 61.4
Away 44% 7/16 · avg 61.6
vs CAR 0% 0/1 · avg 37.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 46.5 75% 15/20
O 51.5 60% 12/20
O 56.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 61.5 40% 8/20
O 66.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CAR

What CAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds148.4#13
Receptions12.3#8
Targets19.3#8
Yds/Target7.7#23
Rec TD0.6#27

WRs vs CAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced CAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-8.8

Avg diff %-11%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Amon-Ra St. Brown	75	74.2	+1%
Oct 04	Jameson Williams	102	43.5	+134%
Sep 27	Denzel Boston	41	72.2	-43%
Sep 27	KC Concepcion	9	35.0	-74%
Sep 20	Drake London	51	109.2	-53%
Sep 20	Jahan Dotson	11	34.5	-68%
Sep 13	Rome Odunze	52	55.2	-6%
Sep 13	Luther Burden III	63	50.8	+24%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.4 yds	2%14.2 yds	10%12.5 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	16%6.4 yds	36%4.0 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CAR defense

CAR defense: Throws CAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.1 yds#6	5%12.2 yds#25	6%10.2 yds#20
Short	28%4.9 yds#29	24%8.5 yds#7	31%5.3 yds#19

Throws CAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%7.9 yds	0%	12%14.2 yds
Short	36%5.8 yds	11%6.6 yds	30%7.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	5	5.6	28	19.5%
3	Dallas Goedert TE	3	5.3	16	17.6%
4	Makai Lemon WR	5	4.4	22	16.0%
5	Dameon Pierce RB	1	5.0	5	13.5%
6	Zach Ertz TE	3	2.7	8	9.8%
7	Darius Cooper WR	5	2.6	13	9.0%
8	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
9	Will Shipley RB	5	1.6	8	5.6%
10	Johnny Mundt TE	4	1.2	5	3.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 56.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	65	Over	70.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	117	Over	60.5	67 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	53	Under	65.5	52 (95%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	70	Over	55.5	67 (92%)
2026-01-04	18	vs WAS	52	Under	—	9 (14%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	25	Under	25.5	46 (85%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	42	Under	42.5	60 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	50	Under	50.5	36 (52%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	37	Under	15.5	69 (97%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	48	Under	41.5	51 (94%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	89	Over	80.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	8	Under	8.5	70 (97%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	69	Over	—	58 (92%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	84	Over	85.5	53 (90%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	183	Over	170.5	44 (88%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	49	Under	58.5	55 (96%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	114	Over	47.5	60 (98%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	29	Under	30.5	52 (91%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	60	Over	45.5	64 (96%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	53	Under	55.5	45 (75%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 16m ago.