NFL Prop Research

MP

Michael Penix Jr. QB

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

236.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

BookCaesars · 236.5FanDuel · 236.5Circa · 236.5Fanatics · 235.5DraftKings · 237.5ESPN BET · 234.5

Hit rate · All 41%7/17 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg

239.7

Graph avg

204.5

Graph median

223.014–313

Over the close

50%6/12

2026 per game

Pass Yds239.7▲+19.4

Att25.7▼-5.0

Cmp%67.5%▲+7.4

Pass TD1.0+0.0

INT0.3+0.0

Rush Yds1.3▼-6.4

Snaps63.0▲+1.6

Snap %98.3%▲+5.1

Splits all logged games · over 236.5

• Home 62% 5/8 · avg 225.5
• Away 22% 2/9 · avg 185.8
• vs CHI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

• O 216.5 59% 10/17
• O 226.5 41% 7/17
• O 236.5 Today 41% 7/17
• O 246.5 29% 5/17
• O 256.5 18% 3/17

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Pass Yds255.6#6
• Yds/Att8.1#4
• Cmp%61.5%#25
• Pass TD1.5#16
• Pass Att31.7#17

QBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main QB who faced CHI this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %-3%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	GB Jordan Love	367	260.2	+41%
Oct 04	NYJ Geno Smith	119	241.2	-51%
Sep 28	PHI Jalen Hurts	153	195.0	-22%
Sep 13	CAR Bryce Young	361	302.3	+19%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%16.1 yds	3%12.4 yds	10%9.4 yds
Short	37%5.7 yds	10%7.2 yds	30%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Target share · ATL 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 17 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 236.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs BAL	240	Over	219.5	61 (95%)
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	223	Under	223.5	57 (100%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	256	Over	203.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	175	Under	240.5	41 (62%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	177	Under	200.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	221	Under	217.5	56 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	241	Over	266.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	250	Over	225.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	313	Over	309.5	65 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	172	Under	240.5	51 (77%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	135	Under	143.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TB	298	Over	233.5	76 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CAR	312	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	@ WAS	223	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NYG	202	Under	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	24	Under	—	13 (22%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	14	Under	—	7 (10%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 236.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.