NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Tee Higgins WR

CIN vs BAL · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

54.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 84.6
Graph avg: 72.5
Graph median: 63.022–157
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Targets8.6▲+2.1

Rec5.4▲+1.5

Rec Yds84.6▲+28.2

Rec TD0.2▼-0.5

Snaps49.4▼-1.9

Snap %77.0%▼-3.9

54.5

2025

31

Nov 23
92

Dec 07
53

Dec 21
59

Dec 28
67

Jan 04
2026

59

Sep 13
95

Sep 20
90

Sep 27
157

Oct 04
22

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 54.5

Home 73% 11/15 · avg 72.8
Away 59% 10/17 · avg 64.0
vs BAL 100% 1/1 · avg 83.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 80% 8/10
O 49.5 80% 8/10
O 54.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 59.5 50% 5/10
O 64.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds188.7#1
Receptions13.9#1
Targets20.8#3
Yds/Target9.1#4
Rec TD0.5#27

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.4

Avg diff %+21%

Beat their average58% (7/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Denzel Boston	15	66.0	-77%
Oct 18	KC Concepcion	37	29.8	+24%
Oct 11	Drake London	118	86.4	+37%
Oct 11	Jahan Dotson	54	36.4	+48%
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	145	39.8	+264%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	19	35.8	-47%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	112	93.0	+20%
Sep 27	George Pickens	82	69.2	+18%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	86	98.8	-13%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	64	46.0	+39%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	37	50.4	-27%
Sep 13	Keenan Allen	32	48.8	-34%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.5 yds#9	5%16.1 yds#14	6%15.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.6 yds#17	18%6.3 yds#23	34%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%18.6 yds	4%6.0 yds	14%11.2 yds
Short	23%7.7 yds	21%14.9 yds	31%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	5	8.6	43	22.4%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	5	7.6	38	22.2%
3	Chase Brown RB	5	5.6	28	14.6%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	4	4.2	17	11.1%
6	Erick All TE	2	3.0	6	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	8.6%
8	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
9	Drew Sample TE	3	2.0	6	5.8%
10	Samaje Perine RB	5	2.0	10	5.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 54.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ MIA	22	Under	49.5	45 (69%)
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	157	Over	62.5	60 (79%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	90	Over	55.5	53 (93%)
2026-09-20	2	@ HOU	95	Over	55.5	43 (72%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	59	Over	61.5	46 (72%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	67	Over	55.5	59 (87%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	59	Over	60.5	44 (57%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	53	Under	53.5	38 (62%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	92	Over	55.5	44 (73%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NE	31	Under	72.5	50 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 54.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 13m ago.