NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kyren Williams RB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

69.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 68.6
Graph avg: 70.5
Graph median: 72.539–114
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Carries14.0▼-1.2

Rush Yds68.6▼-3.2

Rush TD0.8▲+0.2

Targets6.6▲+3.6

Rec5.4▲+3.2

Rec Yds40.0▲+22.4

Snaps52.8▲+7.8

Snap %69.2%▲+2.3

69.5

2025

50

Oct 12
54

Oct 19
114

Nov 02
73

Nov 09
91

Nov 16
46

Nov 23
72

Nov 30
84

Dec 07
78

Dec 14
70

Dec 18
92

Dec 29
60

Jan 04
57

Jan 10
87

Jan 18
39

Jan 25
2026

41

Sep 10
85

Sep 21
88

Sep 27
80

Oct 04
49

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 69.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 74.5
Away 65% 15/23 · avg 77.0
vs ARI 25% 1/4 · avg 56.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 49.5 80% 16/20
O 59.5 65% 13/20
O 69.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 79.5 40% 8/20
O 89.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds132.6#1
Yds/Carry4.8#3
Rush TD1.0#7
Targets5.4#16
Rec Yds36.3#8

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+24.0

Avg diff %+41%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	151	88.2	+71%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	58	59.0	-2%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	75	52.8	+42%
Sep 20	Emanuel Wilson	92	42.2	+118%
Sep 13	Omarion Hampton	43	57.0	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	2%0.0 yds	2%20.0 yds
Short	30%8.6 yds	22%7.7 yds	44%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 69.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	49	Under	70.5	60 (73%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	80	Over	59.5	70 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	88	Over	52.5	61 (71%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	85	Over	63.5	34 (55%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	41	Under	54.5	39 (64%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	39	Under	51.5	31 (51%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	87	Over	61.5	49 (63%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	57	Under	69.5	48 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	60	Under	74.5	47 (63%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	92	Over	63.5	46 (71%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	70	Over	55.5	65 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	78	Over	58.5	39 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	84	Over	105.5	36 (51%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	72	Over	70.5	35 (67%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	46	Under	40.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	91	Over	97.5	35 (69%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	73	Over	63.5	40 (58%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	114	Over	70.5	55 (69%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	54	Under	59.5	42 (60%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	50	Under	60.5	40 (75%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 69.5Underdog 69.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 16m ago.