NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Nico Collins WR

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

72.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 58%19/33 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 83.0
Graph avg: 78.7
Graph median: 78.017–151
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets8.3▲+0.4

Rec6.3▲+1.7

Rec Yds83.0▲+11.9

Rec TD1.0▲+0.6

Snaps47.3▼-3.7

Snap %70.7%▼-5.2

72.5

2024

117

Sep 08
135

Sep 15
86

Sep 22
151

Sep 29
78

Oct 06
54

Nov 18
92

Nov 24
119

Dec 01
17

Dec 15
60

Dec 21
59

Dec 25
38

Jan 05
122

Jan 11
81

Jan 18
2025

25

Sep 07
52

Sep 15
104

Sep 21
79

Sep 28
52

Oct 05
27

Oct 20
75

Nov 02
136

Nov 09
92

Nov 16
55

Nov 20
98

Nov 30
121

Dec 07
85

Dec 14
59

Dec 21
57

Dec 27
21

Jan 12
2026

75

Sep 13
118

Oct 04
56

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 72.5

Home 69% 11/16 · avg 86.8
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 71.1
vs JAX 100% 4/4 · avg 127.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 52.5 79% 26/33
O 62.5 58% 19/33
O 72.5 Today 58% 19/33
O 82.5 42% 14/33
O 92.5 30% 10/33

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds172.6#4
Receptions13.4#3
Targets21.3#3
Yds/Target8.1#14
Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.4

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average70% (7/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dontayvion Wicks	63	49.2	+28%
Oct 11	Makai Lemon	43	16.2	+165%
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	157	66.5	+136%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	27	65.5	-59%
Sep 27	Romeo Doubs	49	42.5	+15%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	87	40.7	+114%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	44.3	-100%
Sep 20	Courtland Sutton	25	19.6	+28%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	59	67.8	-13%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	43	26.5	+62%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%9.6 yds	7%31.6 yds	16%10.9 yds
Short	16%4.3 yds	26%10.4 yds	23%9.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 33 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 72.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	56	Under	77.5	47 (71%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	118	Over	72.5	38 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	75	Over	69.5	57 (72%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	21	Under	36.5	38 (56%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	57	Under	38.5	44 (68%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	59	Under	66.5	52 (80%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	85	Over	75.5	49 (73%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	121	Over	121.5	57 (81%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	98	Over	75.5	57 (75%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	55	Under	55.5	44 (75%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	92	Over	75.5	59 (84%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	136	Over	67.5	67 (89%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	75	Over	75.5	58 (79%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	27	Under	—	39 (51%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	52	Under	40.5	40 (57%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	79	Over	79.5	61 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	104	Over	105.5	54 (86%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	52	Under	65.5	44 (90%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	25	Under	32.5	53 (84%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ KC	81	Over	—	56 (82%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	122	Over	—	64 (88%)
2025-01-05	18	@ TEN	38	Under	—	11 (18%)
2024-12-25	17	vs BAL	59	Under	—	40 (71%)
2024-12-21	16	@ KC	60	Under	—	50 (85%)
2024-12-15	15	vs MIA	17	Under	—	41 (82%)
2024-12-01	13	@ JAX	119	Over	—	44 (70%)
2024-11-24	12	vs TEN	92	Over	—	44 (79%)
2024-11-18	11	@ DAL	54	Under	—	30 (47%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BUF	78	Over	—	9 (13%)
2024-09-29	4	vs JAX	151	Over	—	63 (84%)
2024-09-22	3	@ MIN	86	Over	—	55 (82%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CHI	135	Over	—	52 (84%)
2024-09-08	1	@ IND	117	Over	—	63 (80%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 72.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.