NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Alvin Kamara RB

NO vs NYG · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

23.5 Rush Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · All 72%21/29 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 21.5
Graph avg: 52.0
Graph median: 42.010–155
Over the close: 14%2/14

2026 per game

Carries7.0▼-4.9

Rush Yds21.5▼-21.3

Rush TD0.5▲+0.4

Targets4.0▲+0.5

Rec3.2▲+0.2

Rec Yds10.2▼-6.7

Snaps21.0▼-20.5

Snap %31.5%▼-32.2

23.5

2024

83

Sep 08
115

Sep 15
87

Sep 22
77

Sep 29
26

Oct 07
40

Oct 13
10

Oct 17
67

Oct 27
155

Nov 03
55

Nov 10
67

Nov 17
112

Dec 01
44

Dec 08
12

Dec 15
2025

45

Sep 07
99

Sep 14
42

Sep 21
70

Sep 28
27

Oct 05
31

Oct 12
28

Oct 19
21

Oct 26
14

Nov 02
83

Nov 09
11

Nov 23
2026

15

Sep 20
36

Sep 27
23

Oct 05
12

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 23.5

Home 65% 11/17 · avg 45.4
Away 83% 10/12 · avg 61.3
vs NYG 100% 2/2 · avg 35.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 13.5 86% 25/29
O 18.5 79% 23/29
O 23.5 Today 72% 21/29
O 28.5 62% 18/29
O 33.5 59% 17/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs NYG

What NYG allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds96.4#15
Yds/Carry4.4#13
Rush TD0.6#18
Targets3.5#32
Rec Yds21.9#29

RBs vs NYG · 2026

Each main RB who faced NYG this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+17.4

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	82	39.2	+109%
Oct 04	Jeremiyah Love	63	45.5	+38%
Sep 27	Tony Pollard	74	49.8	+49%
Sep 21	Kyren Williams	85	64.5	+32%
Sep 13	Javonte Williams	41	58.8	-30%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%7.6 yds	3%18.2 yds	7%13.7 yds
Short	32%5.7 yds	15%8.7 yds	33%5.5 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYG defense

NYG defense: Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	2%21.6 yds#4	8%8.9 yds#26
Short	30%5.9 yds#15	15%8.2 yds#9	36%6.0 yds#9

Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	50%5.5 yds	12%7.2 yds	35%2.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Chris Olave WR	5	10.8	54	27.9%
2	Devaughn Vele WR	5	7.4	37	19.7%
3	Juwan Johnson TE	5	6.4	32	16.8%
4	Alvin Kamara RB	4	4.0	16	11.1%
5	Travis Etienne RB	3	4.3	13	9.5%
6	Bryce Lance WR	5	3.2	16	8.3%
7	Noah Fant TE	4	3.2	13	7.4%
8	Kendre Miller RB	4	1.5	6	3.5%
9	Kevin Austin Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	3.1%
10	CJ Donaldson RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 23.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs MIN	12	Under	32.5	12 (27%)
2026-10-05	4	vs ATL	23	Under	35.5	28 (38%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LV	36	Over	24.5	24 (32%)
2026-09-20	2	@ BAL	15	Under	21.5	20 (29%)
2025-11-23	12	vs ATL	11	Under	55.5	11 (14%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CAR	83	Over	83.5	43 (63%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LA	14	Under	15.5	24 (59%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TB	21	Under	44.5	37 (51%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CHI	28	Over	30.5	47 (84%)
2025-10-12	6	vs NE	31	Over	36.5	35 (62%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NYG	27	Over	35.5	37 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	@ BUF	70	Over	70.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SEA	42	Over	—	54 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SF	99	Over	70.5	61 (86%)
2025-09-07	1	vs ARI	45	Over	58.5	59 (79%)
2024-12-15	15	vs WAS	12	Under	—	25 (45%)
2024-12-08	14	@ NYG	44	Over	—	49 (72%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LA	112	Over	—	60 (86%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CLE	67	Over	—	44 (73%)
2024-11-10	10	vs ATL	55	Over	—	43 (81%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CAR	155	Over	—	61 (77%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LAC	67	Over	—	40 (55%)
2024-10-17	7	vs DEN	10	Under	—	40 (57%)
2024-10-13	6	vs TB	40	Over	—	52 (74%)
2024-10-07	5	@ KC	26	Over	—	47 (89%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ATL	77	Over	—	61 (82%)
2024-09-22	3	vs PHI	87	Over	—	48 (86%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DAL	115	Over	—	37 (63%)
2024-09-08	1	vs CAR	83	Over	—	34 (52%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 23.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 17m ago.