NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Xavier Worthy WR

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

48.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 35%13/37 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 33.2
Graph avg: 43.0
Graph median: 41.00–157
Over the close: 33%6/18

2026 per game

Targets5.5▲+0.3

Rec3.5▲+0.5

Rec Yds33.2▼-4.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.2

Snaps52.5▲+6.4

Snap %80.2%▲+9.7

48.5

2024

47

Sep 05
17

Sep 15
17

Sep 22
73

Sep 29
25

Oct 07
19

Oct 20
37

Oct 27
0

Nov 04
11

Nov 10
61

Nov 17
46

Nov 24
54

Nov 29
41

Dec 08
46

Dec 15
65

Dec 21
79

Dec 25
45

Jan 18
85

Jan 26
157

Feb 09
2025

0

Sep 05
83

Sep 28
42

Oct 06
20

Oct 12
35

Oct 19
53

Oct 27
23

Nov 02
25

Nov 16
59

Nov 23
61

Nov 27
55

Dec 07
35

Dec 14
41

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
2026

18

Sep 14
25

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
70

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 48.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 38.6
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 48.1
vs LAC 25% 1/4 · avg 37.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 38.5 54% 20/37
O 43.5 46% 17/37
O 48.5 Today 35% 13/37
O 53.5 32% 12/37
O 58.5 27% 10/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions10.6#16
Targets16.1#27
Yds/Target8.6#12
Rec TD0.9#14

WRs vs LAC · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.8

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jaylen Waddle	19	41.8	-55%
Oct 11	Courtland Sutton	18	21.0	-14%
Oct 04	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	76	128.2	-41%
Oct 04	Cooper Kupp	13	33.2	-61%
Sep 27	Khalil Shakir	6	62.5	-90%
Sep 27	Keon Coleman	37	46.8	-21%
Sep 20	Tre Tucker	119	38.8	+207%
Sep 20	Jalen Nailor	9	21.5	-58%
Sep 13	Michael Wilson	56	58.0	-3%
Sep 13	Kendrick Bourne	75	34.3	+118%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%10.8 yds	6%27.7 yds	16%4.9 yds
Short	20%6.1 yds	6%8.3 yds	42%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 48.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	70	Over	33.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	20	Under	38.5	43 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	25	Under	39.5	69 (86%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	18	Under	36.5	53 (77%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	34 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	41	Under	40.5	38 (84%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	35	Under	36.5	41 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	55	Over	55.5	49 (77%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	61	Over	20.5	58 (88%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	59	Over	30.5	74 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	25	Under	25.5	53 (76%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	23	Under	10.5	50 (83%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	53	Over	45.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	35	Under	35.5	48 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	20	Under	20.5	47 (73%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	42	Under	45.5	49 (77%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	83	Over	83.5	43 (59%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	0	Under	63.5	3 (5%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	157	Over	—	51 (91%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	85	Over	—	54 (82%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	45	Under	—	42 (82%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	79	Over	—	53 (85%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	65	Over	—	59 (80%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	46	Under	—	61 (81%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	41	Under	—	57 (83%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	54	Over	—	42 (59%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	46	Under	—	47 (64%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	61	Over	—	32 (58%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	11	Under	—	51 (75%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	0	Under	—	58 (68%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	37	Under	—	38 (53%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	19	Under	—	42 (60%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	25	Under	—	56 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	73	Over	—	45 (73%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	17	Under	—	37 (50%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	17	Under	—	44 (68%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	47	Under	—	34 (63%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 48.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.