NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bo Nix QB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

220.5 Pass Yds

Hit rate · All 43%18/42 Odds imply —

Season avg: 174.8
Graph avg: 218.5
Graph median: 215.560–352
Over the close: 44%10/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds174.8▼-59.1

Att31.5▼-5.1

Cmp%60.3%▼-2.6

Pass TD1.0▼-0.6

INT0.5▼-0.2

Rush Yds6.2▼-15.2

Snaps61.2▼-5.9

Snap %99.7%+0.0

220.5

2024

216

Sep 22
60

Sep 29
206

Oct 06
216

Oct 13
164

Oct 17
284

Oct 27
223

Nov 03
215

Nov 10
307

Nov 17
273

Nov 24
294

Dec 02
130

Dec 15
263

Dec 19
219

Dec 28
321

Jan 05
144

Jan 12
2025

176

Sep 07
206

Sep 14
153

Sep 21
326

Sep 29
242

Oct 05
174

Oct 12
279

Oct 19
247

Oct 26
173

Nov 02
150

Nov 06
295

Nov 16
321

Nov 30
212

Dec 07
302

Dec 14
352

Dec 21
182

Dec 25
141

Jan 04
279

Jan 17
2026

131

Sep 14
288

Sep 20
186

Sep 27
214

Oct 04
123

Oct 11
107

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 220.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 244.4
Away 24% 5/21 · avg 192.7
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 200.5 62% 26/42
O 210.5 57% 24/42
O 220.5 Today 43% 18/42
O 230.5 40% 17/42
O 240.5 40% 17/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds252.9#6
Yds/Att8.1#2
Cmp%66.7%#4
Pass TD2.7#1
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.6

Avg diff %+9%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Matthew Stafford	222	314.4	-29%
Oct 11	Jared Goff	271	303.5	-11%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	250	176.8	+41%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	297	224.8	+32%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	209	186.4	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.7 yds	1%12.2 yds	6%5.5 yds
Short	36%5.5 yds	11%3.6 yds	38%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 220.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	107	Under	197.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	123	Under	223.5	62 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	214	Under	221.5	65 (98%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	186	Under	211.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	288	Over	220.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	131	Under	227.5	51 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	279	Over	212.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	141	Under	220.5	59 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	182	Under	197.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	352	Over	347.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	302	Over	—	68 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	212	Under	228.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	321	Over	255.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	295	Over	265.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	150	Under	148.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	173	Under	175.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	247	Over	250.5	59 (94%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	279	Over	202.5	81 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	174	Under	180.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	242	Over	213.5	74 (100%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	326	Over	315.5	81 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	153	Under	193.5	52 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	206	Under	210.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	176	Under	160.5	76 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ BUF	144	Under	—	42 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs KC	321	Over	—	65 (88%)
2024-12-28	17	@ CIN	219	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-19	16	@ LAC	263	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs IND	130	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-12-02	13	vs CLE	294	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LV	273	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs ATL	307	Over	—	59 (95%)
2024-11-10	10	@ KC	215	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BAL	223	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CAR	284	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-10-17	7	@ NO	164	Under	—	63 (97%)
2024-10-13	6	vs LAC	216	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs LV	206	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ NYJ	60	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TB	216	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs PIT	246	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ SEA	138	Under	—	69 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 220.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.