NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Juwan Johnson TE

NO vs NYG · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

39.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 54%20/37 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 49.6
Graph avg: 45.5
Graph median: 46.012–95
Over the close: 43%9/21

2026 per game

Targets6.4▲+0.4

Rec5.0▲+0.5

Rec Yds49.6▼-2.7

Rec TD0.6▲+0.4

Snaps49.0▼-1.0

Snap %68.2%▼-6.8

39.5

2024

26

Sep 08
13

Sep 29
31

Oct 07
48

Oct 13
18

Oct 17
48

Oct 27
41

Nov 03
22

Nov 10
30

Nov 17
36

Dec 01
50

Dec 08
12

Dec 15
27

Dec 23
66

Dec 29
80

Jan 05
2025

76

Sep 07
49

Sep 14
51

Sep 21
28

Sep 28
17

Oct 05
15

Oct 12
79

Oct 19
53

Oct 26
31

Nov 02
92

Nov 09
46

Nov 23
39

Nov 30
38

Dec 07
30

Dec 14
89

Dec 21
95

Dec 28
61

Jan 04
2026

54

Sep 13
66

Sep 20
53

Sep 27
59

Oct 05
16

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 40.1
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 51.3
vs NYG 50% 1/2 · avg 33.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 73% 27/37
O 34.5 62% 23/37
O 39.5 Today 54% 20/37
O 44.5 51% 19/37
O 49.5 40% 15/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NYG

What NYG allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds54.4#14
Receptions5.5#13
Targets7.3#15
Yds/Target7.5#14
Rec TD0.2#25

TEs vs NYG · 2026

Each main TE who faced NYG this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-14.2

Avg diff %-50%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	John Bates	1	11.0	-91%
Oct 04	Trey McBride	31	69.2	-55%
Sep 27	Gunnar Helm	14	11.5	+22%
Sep 21	Davis Allen	7	14.0	-50%
Sep 13	Jake Ferguson	6	24.0	-75%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%7.6 yds	3%18.2 yds	7%13.7 yds
Short	32%5.7 yds	15%8.7 yds	33%5.5 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYG defense

NYG defense: Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	2%21.6 yds#4	8%8.9 yds#26
Short	30%5.9 yds#15	15%8.2 yds#9	36%6.0 yds#9

Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	2%18.0 yds	9%29.6 yds
Short	31%6.0 yds	19%12.2 yds	40%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Chris Olave WR	5	10.8	54	27.9%
2	Devaughn Vele WR	5	7.4	37	19.7%
3	Juwan Johnson TE	5	6.4	32	16.8%
4	Alvin Kamara RB	4	4.0	16	11.1%
5	Travis Etienne RB	3	4.3	13	9.5%
6	Bryce Lance WR	5	3.2	16	8.3%
7	Noah Fant TE	4	3.2	13	7.4%
8	Kendre Miller RB	4	1.5	6	3.5%
9	Kevin Austin Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	3.1%
10	CJ Donaldson RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 39.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs MIN	16	Under	42.5	29 (64%)
2026-10-05	4	vs ATL	59	Over	46.5	58 (78%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LV	53	Over	35.5	46 (62%)
2026-09-20	2	@ BAL	66	Over	38.5	36 (53%)
2026-09-13	1	@ DET	54	Over	42.5	76 (84%)
2026-01-04	18	@ ATL	61	Over	75.5	51 (75%)
2025-12-28	17	@ TEN	95	Over	45.5	39 (72%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NYJ	89	Over	89.5	51 (65%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CAR	30	Under	36.5	42 (61%)
2025-12-07	14	@ TB	38	Under	40.5	31 (53%)
2025-11-30	13	@ MIA	39	Under	40.5	52 (72%)
2025-11-23	12	vs ATL	46	Over	40.5	62 (78%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CAR	92	Over	92.5	34 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LA	31	Under	35.5	29 (71%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TB	53	Over	25.5	55 (76%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CHI	79	Over	79.5	40 (71%)
2025-10-12	6	vs NE	15	Under	36.5	40 (71%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NYG	17	Under	20.5	56 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	@ BUF	28	Under	28.5	60 (90%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SEA	51	Over	—	66 (90%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SF	49	Over	46.5	68 (96%)
2025-09-07	1	vs ARI	76	Over	26.5	74 (99%)
2025-01-05	18	@ TB	80	Over	—	52 (79%)
2024-12-29	17	vs LV	66	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-12-23	16	@ GB	27	Under	—	41 (73%)
2024-12-15	15	vs WAS	12	Under	—	40 (73%)
2024-12-08	14	@ NYG	50	Over	—	49 (72%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LA	36	Under	—	49 (70%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CLE	30	Under	—	34 (57%)
2024-11-10	10	vs ATL	22	Under	—	31 (58%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CAR	41	Over	—	51 (65%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LAC	48	Over	—	32 (44%)
2024-10-17	7	vs DEN	18	Under	—	51 (73%)
2024-10-13	6	vs TB	48	Over	—	54 (77%)
2024-10-07	5	@ KC	31	Under	—	42 (79%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ATL	13	Under	—	50 (68%)
2024-09-08	1	vs CAR	26	Under	—	23 (35%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 39.5PrizePicks 40.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.