NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Rico Dowdle RB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

20.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 86%31/36 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 18.5
Graph avg: 61.1
Graph median: 47.59–206
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Carries7.5▼-5.9

Rush Yds18.5▼-41.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets3.5▲+0.6

Rec2.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds14.0▼-2.8

Snaps28.5▼-5.7

Snap %42.0%▼-12.9

20.5

2024

26

Sep 08
30

Sep 15
32

Sep 22
46

Sep 26
87

Oct 06
25

Oct 13
75

Nov 03
53

Nov 10
28

Nov 18
86

Nov 24
112

Nov 28
131

Dec 09
149

Dec 15
23

Dec 22
104

Dec 29
72

Jan 05
2025

12

Sep 07
9

Sep 14
30

Sep 21
32

Sep 28
206

Oct 05
183

Oct 12
79

Oct 19
54

Oct 26
130

Nov 02
53

Nov 09
45

Nov 16
38

Nov 24
58

Nov 30
49

Dec 14
29

Dec 21
59

Dec 28
10

Jan 03
9

Jan 10
2026

15

Sep 13
22

Sep 20
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 90% 17/19 · avg 63.3
Away 82% 14/17 · avg 58.8
vs TB 67% 2/3 · avg 20.7

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 10.5 92% 33/36
O 15.5 86% 31/36
O 20.5 Today 86% 31/36
O 25.5 78% 28/36
O 30.5 64% 23/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TB

What TB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.1#28
Yds/Carry3.9#22
Rush TD0.4#29
Targets5.8#11
Rec Yds35.7#9

RBs vs TB · 2026

Each main RB who faced TB this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.0

Avg diff %-29%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Javonte Williams	45	57.8	-22%
Oct 04	MarShawn Lloyd	13	24.8	-47%
Sep 27	Aaron Jones	58	88.0	-34%
Sep 20	Quinshon Judkins	21	50.0	-58%
Sep 13	Chase Brown	56	47.5	+18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	56%4.0 yds	11%6.5 yds	33%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	22	Over	33.5	18 (26%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	15	Under	45.5	39 (58%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	9	Under	47.5	24 (36%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	10	Under	30.5	27 (53%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	59	Over	46.5	34 (64%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	29	Over	31.5	31 (57%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	49	Over	56.5	34 (60%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	58	Over	55.5	27 (42%)
2025-11-24	12	@ SF	38	Over	38.5	30 (65%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	45	Over	44.5	66 (82%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NO	53	Over	57.5	42 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	130	Over	—	42 (72%)
2025-10-26	8	vs BUF	54	Over	50.5	22 (36%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	79	Over	54.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DAL	183	Over	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIA	206	Over	59.5	47 (67%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	32	Over	25.5	27 (39%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ATL	30	Over	33.5	23 (40%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	9	Under	9.5	25 (29%)
2025-09-07	1	@ JAX	12	Under	12.5	22 (34%)
2025-01-05	18	vs WAS	72	Over	—	52 (67%)
2024-12-29	17	@ PHI	104	Over	—	41 (66%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TB	23	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CAR	149	Over	—	54 (74%)
2024-12-09	14	vs CIN	131	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-11-28	13	vs NYG	112	Over	—	53 (70%)
2024-11-24	12	@ WAS	86	Over	—	40 (61%)
2024-11-18	11	vs HOU	28	Over	—	41 (49%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PHI	53	Over	—	31 (52%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	75	Over	—	55 (71%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	25	Over	—	19 (28%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	87	Over	—	38 (50%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	46	Over	—	25 (45%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	32	Over	—	37 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NO	30	Over	—	30 (43%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	26	Over	—	28 (44%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 21.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 5m ago.