NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jalen Nailor WR

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

22.5 Rec Yds O -111U -120

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 49.1% Over

Season avg: 17.3
Graph avg: 24.8
Graph median: 21.50–124
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Targets3.7▲+0.5

Rec1.7-0.0

Rec Yds17.3▼-8.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps39.7▲+1.3

Snap %59.0%▼-6.4

22.5

2025

28

Sep 08
31

Sep 14
37

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
27

Oct 05
37

Oct 19
0

Oct 23
16

Nov 02
124

Nov 09
16

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
0

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
47

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
49

Jan 04
2026

27

Sep 13
9

Sep 20
16

Sep 27
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 69% 11/16 · avg 38.9
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 16.0
vs BUF No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 65% 13/20
O 17.5 50% 10/20
O 22.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 27.5 40% 8/20
O 32.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds149.1#12
Receptions12.6#6
Targets20.0#7
Yds/Target7.5#25
Rec TD1.3#4

WRs vs BUF · 2026

Each main WR who faced BUF this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.3

Avg diff %+26%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Puka Nacua	138	99.5	+39%
Oct 12	Davante Adams	51	97.5	-48%
Oct 04	Mack Hollins	53	52.0	+2%
Oct 04	Romeo Doubs	58	40.2	+44%
Sep 27	Ladd McConkey	66	39.0	+69%
Sep 27	Tre Harris	76	37.2	+104%
Sep 17	Jameson Williams	33	60.8	-46%
Sep 17	Amon-Ra St. Brown	142	57.5	+147%
Sep 13	Nico Collins	75	87.0	-14%
Sep 13	Xavier Hutchinson	32	49.8	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%20.0 yds	11%0.0 yds	22%8.2 yds
Short	15%5.0 yds	15%11.0 yds	33%5.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	16	Under	24.5	40 (57%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	9	Under	32.5	38 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	27	Over	37.5	41 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	vs GB	49	Over	49.5	50 (75%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DET	0	Under	18.5	23 (43%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NYG	0	Under	0.5	38 (62%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DAL	47	Over	43.5	28 (51%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	30	Over	30.5	37 (58%)
2025-11-30	13	@ SEA	0	Under	10.5	36 (69%)
2025-11-23	12	@ GB	0	Under	—	20 (45%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	16	Under	0.5	33 (60%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	124	Over	80.5	44 (68%)
2025-11-02	9	@ DET	16	Under	10.5	33 (53%)
2025-10-23	8	@ LAC	0	Under	10.5	34 (69%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	37	Over	15.5	41 (59%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CLE	27	Over	20.5	42 (65%)
2025-09-28	4	@ PIT	2	Under	0.5	48 (63%)
2025-09-21	3	vs CIN	37	Over	33.5	50 (83%)
2025-09-14	2	vs ATL	31	Over	35.5	47 (100%)
2025-09-08	1	@ CHI	28	Over	30.5	49 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 12m ago.