NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Cooper Kupp WR

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 29.8
Graph avg: 36.5
Graph median: 35.513–61
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-0.7

Rec2.7▼-0.6

Rec Yds29.8▼-9.6

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps45.2▼-3.0

Snap %68.5%▼-7.2

29.5

2025

29

Jan 03
60

Jan 17
36

Jan 25
61

Feb 08
2026

35

Sep 09
20

Sep 20
46

Sep 27
13

Oct 04
15

Oct 11
50

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 68% 13/19 · avg 43.2
Away 55% 11/20 · avg 45.5
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 80% 8/10
O 24.5 70% 7/10
O 29.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 34.5 60% 6/10
O 39.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs KC

What KC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds112.7#31
Receptions9.5#29
Targets17.4#21
Yds/Target6.5#30
Rec TD0.2#32

WRs vs KC · 2026

Each main WR who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.1

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Ladd McConkey	17	45.8	-63%
Oct 18	Quentin Johnston	57	27.0	+111%
Oct 04	Tre Tucker	44	65.4	-33%
Oct 04	Cody White	36	14.4	+150%
Sep 27	Malik Washington	56	51.5	+9%
Sep 27	Ryan Miller	15	38.5	-61%
Sep 20	Keenan Allen	5	55.5	-91%
Sep 20	Josh Downs	72	43.4	+66%
Sep 14	Jaylen Waddle	2	45.2	-96%
Sep 14	Pat Bryant	42	30.3	+38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%15.0 yds	2%0.0 yds	4%12.0 yds
Short	28%7.2 yds	24%5.1 yds	35%6.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	50	Over	22.5	72 (85%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	15	Under	24.5	51 (81%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	13	Under	23.5	34 (57%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	46	Over	19.5	45 (67%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ARI	20	Under	23.5	30 (43%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	35	Over	29.5	39 (78%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	61	Over	34.5	56 (78%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	36	Over	32.5	52 (78%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	60	Over	30.5	39 (74%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	29	Under	32.5	53 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 13m ago.