NFL Prop Research

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Game logs through Oct 8, 2026 · 171 players

Alvin Kamara RB

NO vs MIN ·

32.5 Rush Yds O -116U -108
Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 50.8% Over
Season avg
24.7
Graph avg
49.5
Graph median
39.011–155
Over the close
15%2/13
2026 per game
Carries8.3â–¼-3.6
Rush Yds24.7â–¼-18.2
Rush TD0.7â–²+0.6
Targets4.7â–²+1.1
Rec3.7â–²+0.7
Rec Yds15.7â–¼-1.2
Snaps24.0â–¼-17.5
Snap %33.0%â–¼-30.7
Alvin Kamara rushing yards by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 32.5.
  1. 2024
    155
  2. 55
  3. 67
  4. 112
  5. 44
  6. 12
  7. 2025
    45
  8. 99
  9. 42
  10. 70
  11. 27
  12. 31
  13. 28
  14. 21
  15. 14
  16. 83
  17. 11
  18. 2026
    15
  19. 36
  20. 23
  21. ?

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 32.5

  • Home 56% 9/16 · avg 47.4
  • Away 67% 8/12 · avg 61.3
  • vs MIN No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

  • O 22.5 75% 15/20
  • O 27.5 65% 13/20
  • O 32.5 Today 55% 11/20
  • O 37.5 50% 10/20
  • O 42.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs MIN

What MIN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush YdsYds/CarryRush TDTargetsRec Yds
  • Rush Yds92.2#19
  • Yds/Carry3.9#23
  • Rush TD0.4#24
  • Targets3.9#32
  • Rec Yds18.9#32

RBs vs MIN · 2026

Each main RB who faced MIN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.0
Avg diff %+30%
Beat their average25% (1/4)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 04 Ollie Gordon II10024.0+317%
Sep 27 Bucky Irving4690.0-49%
Sep 20 Kyle Monangai4792.3-49%
Sep 13 Kaleb Johnson026.7-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep9%7.6 yds3%18.2 yds8%13.3 yds
Short30%5.7 yds14%9.0 yds36%5.9 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIN defense

MIN defense: Throws MIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep5%10.5 yds#136%16.7 yds#127%10.3 yds#19
Short34%4.8 yds#3117%5.4 yds#2832%4.7 yds#27

Throws MIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep3%0.0 yds0% 0% 
Short45%5.5 yds21%7.2 yds32%2.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · NO 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Chris Olave WR412.04828.6%
2Devaughn Vele WR47.83118.3%
3Juwan Johnson TE46.82715.7%
4Alvin Kamara RB34.71412.0%
5Travis Etienne RB34.3139.5%
6Noah Fant TE34.0128.5%
7Bryce Lance WR43.2137.2%
8Kendre Miller RB32.064.6%
9Kevin Austin Jr. WR11.013.1%
10CJ Donaldson RB41.042.0%

Game log · 20 games

DateWkOppRush Ydsvs 32.5CloseSnaps
2026-10-054vs ATL23Under35.528 (38%)
2026-09-273vs LV36Over24.524 (32%)
2026-09-202@ BAL15Under21.520 (29%)
2025-11-2312vs ATL11Under55.511 (14%)
2025-11-0910@ CAR83Over83.543 (63%)
2025-11-029@ LA14Under15.524 (59%)
2025-10-268vs TB21Under44.537 (51%)
2025-10-197@ CHI28Under30.547 (84%)
2025-10-126vs NE31Under36.535 (62%)
2025-10-055vs NYG27Under35.537 (56%)
2025-09-284@ BUF70Over70.549 (73%)
2025-09-213@ SEA42Over—54 (74%)
2025-09-142vs SF99Over70.561 (86%)
2025-09-071vs ARI45Over58.559 (79%)
2024-12-1515vs WAS12Under—25 (45%)
2024-12-0814@ NYG44Over—49 (72%)
2024-12-0113vs LA112Over—60 (86%)
2024-11-1711vs CLE67Over—44 (73%)
2024-11-1010vs ATL55Over—43 (81%)
2024-11-039@ CAR155Over—61 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 32.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.