NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Downs WR

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

55.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 50.5
Graph avg: 44.2
Graph median: 40.513–77
Over the close: 44%4/9

2026 per game

Targets7.0▲+1.5

Rec4.2▲+0.6

Rec Yds50.5▲+15.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps50.2▲+13.1

Snap %79.2%▲+20.6

2025

44

Nov 30
23

Dec 07
13

Dec 14
65

Dec 22
34

Dec 28
61

Jan 04
2026

37

Sep 13
72

Sep 20
77

Sep 27
16

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 55.5

Home 33% 6/18 · avg 45.5
Away 50% 8/16 · avg 47.0
vs PIT 100% 2/2 · avg 69.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 45.5 40% 4/10
O 50.5 40% 4/10
O 55.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 60.5 40% 4/10
O 65.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds154.0#11
Receptions10.4#20
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target9.7#2
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.9

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	89	65.0	+37%
Oct 01	KC Concepcion	64	26.7	+140%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	90	103.7	-13%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	98	38.0	+158%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	18	63.7	-72%
Sep 20	Romeo Doubs	96	35.7	+169%
Sep 13	Drake London	29	113.7	-74%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	19	25.3	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%9.0 yds	2%18.0 yds	8%6.0 yds
Short	23%4.5 yds	21%7.5 yds	34%7.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 55.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	16	Under	70.5	51 (77%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	77	Over	50.5	48 (68%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	72	Over	42.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	37	Under	46.5	48 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	61	Over	—	41 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	34	Under	40.5	35 (61%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	65	Over	26.5	47 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	13	Under	13.5	43 (72%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	23	Under	33.5	46 (66%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	44	Under	32.5	31 (57%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 58.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.