NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jameson Williams WR

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

54.5 Rec Yds O -122U —

Hit rate · All 54%20/37 Odds imply —

Season avg: 57.2
Graph avg: 63.9
Graph median: 66.0-4–144
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Targets6.2▲+0.2

Rec4.0▲+0.2

Rec Yds57.2▼-8.5

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps62.8▲+4.4

Snap %90.5%▲+0.3

2024

121

Sep 08
79

Sep 15
9

Sep 22
80

Sep 30
76

Oct 13
-4

Oct 20
53

Nov 10
124

Nov 17
64

Nov 24
28

Nov 28
80

Dec 05
37

Dec 15
143

Dec 22
77

Dec 30
34

Jan 05
19

Jan 18
2025

23

Sep 07
108

Sep 14
43

Sep 22
40

Sep 28
9

Oct 05
66

Oct 12
0

Oct 20
66

Nov 02
119

Nov 09
88

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
144

Nov 27
96

Dec 04
134

Dec 14
70

Dec 21
37

Dec 25
74

Jan 04
2026

45

Sep 13
33

Sep 17
49

Sep 27
102

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 54.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 64.2
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 63.7
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 9.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 62% 23/37
O 49.5 57% 21/37
O 54.5 Today 54% 20/37
O 59.5 54% 20/37
O 64.5 51% 19/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds143.1#15
Receptions9.8#26
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.2#5
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.5

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	32.0	+250%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	31.7	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	59.7	-43%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	80	35.0	+129%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	108.7	+43%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	31.3	-36%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	63.0	-68%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	82	33.7	+144%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%7.6 yds	10%16.4 yds	11%18.6 yds
Short	24%7.9 yds	16%15.4 yds	26%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 54.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	102	Over	51.5	70 (99%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	49	Under	54.5	53 (82%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	33	Under	57.5	63 (97%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	45	Under	59.5	65 (84%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	74	Over	51.5	69 (95%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	37	Under	68.5	53 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	70	Over	67.5	70 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	134	Over	64.5	58 (91%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	96	Over	96.5	57 (92%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	144	Over	—	59 (94%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	0	Under	10.5	66 (97%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	88	Over	88.5	56 (95%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	119	Over	119.5	61 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	66	Over	29.5	58 (91%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	0	Under	10.5	58 (85%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	66	Over	66.5	46 (85%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	9	Under	10.5	51 (82%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	40	Under	40.5	51 (85%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	43	Under	45.5	62 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	108	Over	48.5	52 (88%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	23	Under	—	65 (97%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	19	Under	—	61 (88%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	34	Under	—	55 (81%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	77	Over	—	56 (79%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	143	Over	—	54 (83%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	37	Under	—	69 (87%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	80	Over	—	55 (69%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	28	Under	—	55 (79%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	64	Over	—	60 (83%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	124	Over	—	51 (65%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	53	Under	—	48 (74%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	-4	Under	—	43 (75%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	76	Over	—	51 (75%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	80	Over	—	51 (96%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	9	Under	—	48 (71%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	79	Over	—	78 (91%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	121	Over	—	52 (85%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 51.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Bally Bet, updated 12m ago.