NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Justin Herbert QB

LAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

204.5 Pass Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 204.0
Graph avg: 219.2
Graph median: 215.081–420
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds204.0▼-24.6

Att29.8▼-2.2

Cmp%59.7%▼-6.5

Pass TD1.0▼-0.5

INT1.5▲+0.7

Rush Yds22.0▼-10.6

Snaps65.8▲+0.9

Snap %100.0%▲+3.0

2025

242

Sep 15
300

Sep 21
203

Sep 28
166

Oct 05
264

Oct 12
420

Oct 19
227

Oct 23
250

Nov 02
220

Nov 09
81

Nov 16
151

Nov 30
139

Dec 08
210

Dec 14
300

Dec 21
236

Dec 27
159

Jan 11
2026

209

Sep 13
192

Sep 20
226

Sep 27
189

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 204.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 228.3
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 223.8
vs DEN 100% 3/3 · avg 273.7

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 184.5 75% 15/20
O 194.5 65% 13/20
O 204.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 214.5 50% 10/20
O 224.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds210.7#24
Yds/Att6.1#31
Cmp%57.1%#31
Pass TD1.4#18
Pass Att34.3#6

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.7

Avg diff %-5%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	218	263.0	-17%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	390	266.3	+46%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	189	218.0	-13%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	184	284.3	-35%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.9 yds	2%13.6 yds	9%6.5 yds
Short	29%6.6 yds	14%5.4 yds	37%4.8 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%4.4 yds#31	4%8.4 yds#32	8%7.7 yds#28
Short	29%7.6 yds#2	13%6.6 yds#18	36%5.1 yds#23

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.3 yds	2%13.6 yds	9%7.0 yds
Short	28%7.3 yds	15%5.3 yds	36%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	4	5.2	21	17.8%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Oronde Gadsden II TE	4	3.8	15	12.5%
6	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	4	2.5	10	8.1%
8	Kimani Vidal RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
9	Charlie Kolar TE	2	1.5	3	5.8%
10	Omarion Hampton RB	4	1.2	5	4.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 204.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	189	Under	199.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	226	Over	225.5	69 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	192	Under	223.5	68 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	209	Over	233.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	159	Under	155.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	236	Over	250.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	300	Over	285.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	210	Over	210.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	139	Under	165.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	151	Under	140.5	57 (85%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	81	Under	252.5	35 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	220	Over	252.5	73 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	250	Over	254.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	227	Over	245.5	73 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	420	Over	429.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	264	Over	235.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	166	Under	209.5	61 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	203	Under	251.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	300	Over	288.5	86 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	242	Over	254.5	58 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 199.5Underdog 199.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 11m ago.