NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dontayvion Wicks WR

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

43.5 Rec Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · Last 20 25%5/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 49.2
Graph avg: 33.0
Graph median: 31.05–94
Over the close: 50%3/6

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+1.5

Rec3.0▲+0.7

Rec Yds49.2▲+23.7

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps49.2▲+18.3

Snap %83.2%▲+36.0

2024

43

Dec 29
49

Jan 05
39

Jan 12
2025

30

Sep 07
44

Sep 11
21

Sep 21
19

Sep 28
15

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
38

Nov 10
9

Nov 16
32

Nov 23
94

Nov 27
6

Dec 14
12

Dec 20
7

Dec 27
2026

73

Sep 13
74

Sep 20
32

Sep 28
18

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 43.5

Home 29% 5/17 · avg 31.5
Away 17% 3/18 · avg 24.9
vs JAX 0% 0/1 · avg 11.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 33.5 40% 8/20
O 38.5 35% 7/20
O 43.5 Today 25% 5/20
O 48.5 20% 4/20
O 53.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds173.4#4
Receptions14.1#1
Targets22.1#2
Yds/Target7.8#17
Rec TD0.3#32

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.8

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	157	81.3	+93%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	27	61.7	-56%
Sep 27	Romeo Doubs	49	51.3	-5%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	87	40.7	+114%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	44.3	-100%
Sep 20	Courtland Sutton	25	20.3	+23%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	59	75.0	-21%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	43	33.7	+28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.0 yds	10%6.8 yds	16%22.2 yds
Short	29%5.3 yds	10%5.2 yds	24%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 43.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	18	Under	54.5	56 (92%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	32	Under	44.5	44 (88%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	74	Over	31.5	47 (62%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	73	Over	28.5	50 (91%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	7	Under	13.5	3 (6%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	12	Under	6.5	30 (42%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DEN	6	Under	—	28 (42%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DET	94	Over	—	31 (49%)
2025-11-23	12	vs MIN	32	Under	—	32 (48%)
2025-11-16	11	@ NYG	9	Under	—	31 (56%)
2025-11-10	10	vs PHI	38	Under	—	44 (65%)
2025-10-19	7	@ ARI	5	Under	—	15 (27%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CIN	15	Under	—	21 (34%)
2025-09-28	4	@ DAL	19	Under	—	64 (77%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CLE	21	Under	—	44 (68%)
2025-09-11	2	vs WAS	44	Over	—	37 (54%)
2025-09-07	1	vs DET	30	Under	—	22 (46%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ PHI	39	Under	—	51 (77%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CHI	49	Over	—	48 (74%)
2024-12-29	17	@ MIN	43	Under	—	46 (73%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 44.5PrizePicks 45.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 12m ago.