NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dontayvion Wicks WR

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

44.5 Rec Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · All 20%7/35 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 49.2
Graph avg: 28.1
Graph median: 21.00–94
Over the close: 50%3/6

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+1.5

Rec3.0▲+0.7

Rec Yds49.2▲+23.7

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps49.2▲+18.3

Snap %83.2%▲+36.0

2024

0

Sep 06
26

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
78

Sep 29
20

Oct 06
9

Oct 13
48

Oct 20
11

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
0

Nov 17
25

Nov 24
30

Nov 28
49

Dec 05
14

Dec 15
13

Dec 23
43

Dec 29
49

Jan 05
39

Jan 12
2025

30

Sep 07
44

Sep 11
21

Sep 21
19

Sep 28
15

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
38

Nov 10
9

Nov 16
32

Nov 23
94

Nov 27
6

Dec 14
12

Dec 20
7

Dec 27
2026

73

Sep 13
74

Sep 20
32

Sep 28
18

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 44.5

Home 24% 4/17 · avg 31.5
Away 17% 3/18 · avg 24.9
vs JAX 0% 0/1 · avg 11.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 34.5 31% 11/35
O 39.5 26% 9/35
O 44.5 Today 20% 7/35
O 49.5 11% 4/35
O 54.5 11% 4/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds173.4#4
Receptions14.1#1
Targets22.1#2
Yds/Target7.8#17
Rec TD0.3#32

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.8

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	157	81.3	+93%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	27	61.7	-56%
Sep 27	Romeo Doubs	49	51.3	-5%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	87	40.7	+114%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	44.3	-100%
Sep 20	Courtland Sutton	25	20.3	+23%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	59	75.0	-21%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	43	33.7	+28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.0 yds	10%6.8 yds	16%22.2 yds
Short	29%5.3 yds	10%5.2 yds	24%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 44.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	18	Under	54.5	56 (92%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	32	Under	44.5	44 (88%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	74	Over	31.5	47 (62%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	73	Over	28.5	50 (91%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	7	Under	13.5	3 (6%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	12	Under	6.5	30 (42%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DEN	6	Under	—	28 (42%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DET	94	Over	—	31 (49%)
2025-11-23	12	vs MIN	32	Under	—	32 (48%)
2025-11-16	11	@ NYG	9	Under	—	31 (56%)
2025-11-10	10	vs PHI	38	Under	—	44 (65%)
2025-10-19	7	@ ARI	5	Under	—	15 (27%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CIN	15	Under	—	21 (34%)
2025-09-28	4	@ DAL	19	Under	—	64 (77%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CLE	21	Under	—	44 (68%)
2025-09-11	2	vs WAS	44	Under	—	37 (54%)
2025-09-07	1	vs DET	30	Under	—	22 (46%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ PHI	39	Under	—	51 (77%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CHI	49	Over	—	48 (74%)
2024-12-29	17	@ MIN	43	Under	—	46 (73%)
2024-12-23	16	vs NO	13	Under	—	42 (61%)
2024-12-15	15	@ SEA	14	Under	—	30 (47%)
2024-12-05	14	@ DET	49	Over	—	39 (78%)
2024-11-28	13	vs MIA	30	Under	—	48 (89%)
2024-11-24	12	vs SF	25	Under	—	28 (39%)
2024-11-17	11	@ CHI	0	Under	—	16 (35%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DET	0	Under	—	35 (54%)
2024-10-27	8	@ JAX	11	Under	—	21 (30%)
2024-10-20	7	vs HOU	48	Over	—	24 (41%)
2024-10-13	6	vs ARI	9	Under	—	10 (14%)
2024-10-06	5	@ LA	20	Under	—	45 (76%)
2024-09-29	4	vs MIN	78	Over	—	58 (76%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TEN	0	Under	—	29 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs IND	26	Under	—	36 (51%)
2024-09-06	1	@ PHI	0	Under	—	31 (46%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 44.5Underdog 44.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 16m ago.