NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jonathan Taylor RB

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

85.5 Rush Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 88.2
Graph avg: 93.3
Graph median: 86.026–244
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Carries21.5▲+2.5

Rush Yds88.2▼-5.0

Rush TD1.5▲+0.4

Targets3.8▲+0.5

Rec2.5▼-0.2

Rec Yds17.2▼-5.0

Snaps54.0▲+2.1

Snap %84.7%▲+2.2

2025

165

Sep 14
102

Sep 21
76

Sep 28
66

Oct 05
123

Oct 12
94

Oct 19
153

Oct 26
45

Nov 02
244

Nov 09
58

Nov 23
85

Nov 30
74

Dec 07
87

Dec 14
46

Dec 22
70

Dec 28
26

Jan 04
2026

98

Sep 13
92

Sep 20
68

Sep 27
95

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 85.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 109.9
Away 59% 10/17 · avg 81.8
vs PIT 50% 1/2 · avg 66.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 65.5 80% 16/20
O 75.5 60% 12/20
O 85.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 95.5 30% 6/20
O 105.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds98.9#13
Yds/Carry4.5#12
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.3#8
Rec Yds34.3#13

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.8

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Quinshon Judkins	53	41.3	+28%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	61	48.7	+25%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	43	40.0	+8%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	83	137.0	-39%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	53%5.8 yds	5%10.0 yds	40%3.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 85.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	95	Over	89.5	47 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	68	Under	81.5	60 (85%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	92	Over	79.5	61 (94%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	98	Over	77.5	48 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	26	Under	—	34 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	70	Under	75.5	51 (89%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	46	Under	46.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	87	Over	75.5	51 (85%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	74	Under	92.5	52 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	85	Under	65.5	53 (98%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	58	Under	85.5	46 (90%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	244	Over	135.5	70 (91%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	45	Under	95.5	62 (79%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	153	Over	165.5	40 (75%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	94	Over	101.5	52 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	123	Over	90.5	54 (92%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	66	Under	90.5	49 (74%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	76	Under	68.5	53 (87%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	102	Over	94.5	45 (79%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	165	Over	74.5	66 (93%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 85.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.