NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Chase Brown RB

CIN vs MIA · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

67.5 Rush Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 51.8
Graph avg: 59.1
Graph median: 58.53–108
Over the close: 47%9/19

2026 per game

Carries14.5▲+0.9

Rush Yds51.8▼-8.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.1

Targets6.0▲+0.8

Rec5.2▲+1.2

Rec Yds25.8+0.0

Snaps47.0▲+3.6

Snap %72.8%▲+6.2

2025

47

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
40

Sep 29
27

Oct 05
42

Oct 12
108

Oct 16
73

Oct 26
37

Nov 02
99

Nov 16
107

Nov 23
78

Nov 27
23

Dec 07
53

Dec 14
66

Dec 21
101

Dec 28
72

Jan 04
2026

56

Sep 13
80

Sep 20
61

Sep 27
10

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 67.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 62.6
Away 33% 6/18 · avg 57.0
vs MIA 0% 0/1 · avg 66.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 47.5 60% 12/20
O 57.5 50% 10/20
O 67.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 77.5 30% 6/20
O 87.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs MIA

What MIA allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds98.0#14
Yds/Carry4.3#18
Rush TD1.0#7
Targets5.7#10
Rec Yds36.8#8

RBs vs MIA · 2026

Each main RB who faced MIA this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-13.3

Avg diff %+2%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Aaron Jones	94	67.7	+39%
Sep 27	Kenneth Walker III	70	155.7	-55%
Sep 20	Christian McCaffrey	23	65.0	-65%
Sep 13	Ashton Jeanty	102	54.0	+89%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.4 yds	3%14.9 yds	7%11.7 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	20%8.2 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIA defense

MIA defense: Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.1 yds#11	4%14.5 yds#19	8%11.2 yds#14
Short	29%6.5 yds#6	15%8.6 yds#5	37%6.3 yds#6

Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	44%3.7 yds	16%9.3 yds	38%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	4	9.8	39	24.8%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	4	7.0	28	19.7%
3	Chase Brown RB	4	6.0	24	15.0%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	3	5.0	15	12.7%
6	Erick All TE	1	3.0	3	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	4	4.0	16	9.2%
8	Drew Sample TE	2	2.5	5	7.1%
9	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
10	Samaje Perine RB	4	2.0	8	5.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 67.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	10	Under	58.5	60 (79%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	61	Under	63.5	40 (70%)
2026-09-20	2	@ HOU	80	Over	53.5	42 (70%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	56	Under	56.5	46 (72%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	72	Over	64.5	38 (56%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	101	Over	110.5	47 (61%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	66	Under	74.5	37 (61%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	53	Under	40.5	47 (62%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	23	Under	53.5	40 (67%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	78	Over	50.5	50 (60%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NE	107	Over	105.5	58 (89%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PIT	99	Over	90.5	54 (82%)
2025-11-02	9	vs CHI	37	Under	35.5	65 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYJ	73	Over	55.5	32 (54%)
2025-10-16	7	vs PIT	108	Over	110.5	48 (63%)
2025-10-12	6	@ GB	42	Under	—	35 (54%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DET	27	Under	30.5	33 (53%)
2025-09-29	4	@ DEN	40	Under	40.5	35 (73%)
2025-09-21	3	@ MIN	3	Under	68.5	31 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	47	Under	42.5	49 (71%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 67.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.