NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trey McBride TE

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

80.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 20 25%5/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 60.5
Graph avg: 71.0
Graph median: 73.027–134
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Targets11.5▲+1.6

Rec8.2▲+0.8

Rec Yds60.5▼-12.4

Rec TD0.5▼-0.1

Snaps61.8▲+1.0

Snap %89.0%▼-2.4

2025

78

Sep 14
43

Sep 21
52

Sep 25
41

Oct 05
72

Oct 12
74

Oct 19
55

Nov 03
127

Nov 09
115

Nov 16
79

Nov 23
82

Nov 30
58

Dec 07
134

Dec 14
27

Dec 21
76

Dec 28
65

Jan 04
2026

95

Sep 13
41

Sep 20
75

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 80.5

Home 12% 2/17 · avg 60.9
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 79.5
vs DET 0% 0/1 · avg 25.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 60.5 60% 12/20
O 70.5 55% 11/20
O 80.5 Today 25% 5/20
O 90.5 20% 4/20
O 100.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs DET

What DET allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds77.8#2
Receptions7.5#1
Targets10.4#1
Yds/Target7.5#12
Rec TD0.9#4

TEs vs DET · 2026

Each main TE who faced DET this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+30.6

Avg diff %+195%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Darren Waller	36	37.3	-4%
Sep 27	Kenyon Sadiq	105	12.7	+729%
Sep 17	Dalton Kincaid	95	58.3	+63%
Sep 13	Juwan Johnson	54	59.3	-9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%9.8 yds	3%18.0 yds	8%6.8 yds
Short	24%5.1 yds	22%7.2 yds	38%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 80.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	31	Under	63.5	64 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	75	Under	69.5	79 (91%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	41	Under	60.5	44 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	95	Over	56.5	60 (80%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	65	Under	58.5	52 (95%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	76	Under	81.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	27	Under	33.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	134	Over	140.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	58	Under	70.5	60 (97%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	82	Over	68.5	54 (89%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	79	Under	75.5	74 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	115	Over	123.5	70 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	127	Over	61.5	64 (84%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	55	Under	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	74	Under	—	66 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	72	Under	76.5	66 (90%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	41	Under	60.5	61 (90%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	52	Under	65.5	64 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	43	Under	50.5	58 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	78	Under	70.5	50 (91%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 80.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.