NFL Prop Research

BS

Brenton Strange TE

JAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

33.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

BookBetMGM · 33.5FanDuel · 33.5Caesars · 32.5ESPN BET · 34.5Bally Bet · 34.5DraftKings · 31.5Fanatics · 30.5

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg

41.8

Graph avg

39.9

Graph median

35.50–95

Over the close

41%7/17

2026 per game

Targets4.5▼-0.5

Rec3.5▼-0.2

Rec Yds41.8▼-0.5

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps47.2▼-2.0

Snap %78.8%▲+2.9

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

• Home 38% 6/16 · avg 35.7
• Away 47% 7/15 · avg 37.1
• vs PHI No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 23.5 65% 13/20
• O 28.5 55% 11/20
• O 33.5 Today 50% 10/20
• O 38.5 50% 10/20
• O 43.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds26.3#32
• Receptions3.6#31
• Targets5.4#30
• Yds/Target4.9#32
• Rec TD0.1#30

TEs vs PHI · 2026

Each main TE who faced PHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.2

Avg diff %+5%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	LA Tyler Higbee	67	37.0	+81%
Sep 28	CHI Colston Loveland	31	20.0	+55%
Sep 20	TEN Gunnar Helm	13	15.7	-17%
Sep 13	WAS Colson Yankoff	0	5.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	5%16.9 yds	8%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.5 yds	16%6.2 yds	28%7.6 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%8.9 yds#22	4%19.6 yds#5	8%10.2 yds#20
Short	32%5.8 yds#16	19%6.0 yds#24	34%4.6 yds#28

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.0 yds	0%	8%5.8 yds
Short	32%6.9 yds	26%7.6 yds	30%7.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · JAX 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	4	6.5	26	25.7%
2	Brenton Strange TE	4	4.5	18	18.7%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	4	3.8	15	15.0%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	4	3.5	14	13.8%
5	Bhayshul Tuten RB	4	1.8	7	7.0%
6	Josh Cameron WR	4	1.5	6	6.4%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	3	1.3	4	5.7%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	4	0.8	3	3.0%
10	Quintin Morris TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	95	Over	36.5	53 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	32	Under	30.5	48 (77%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	17	Under	30.5	49 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	23	Under	36.5	39 (68%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	9	Under	9.5	49 (88%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	52	Over	52.5	38 (62%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	54	Over	54.5	56 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	39	Over	39.5	52 (74%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	26	Under	10.5	51 (82%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	27	Under	41.5	51 (80%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	45	Over	45.5	53 (84%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	93	Over	55.5	44 (71%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	22	Under	36.5	22 (38%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	45	Over	40.5	50 (74%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	61	Over	55.5	58 (83%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	17	Under	20.5	64 (90%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	59	Over	31.5	52 (79%)
2025-01-05	18	@ IND	60	Over	—	50 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	vs TEN	0	Under	—	42 (72%)
2024-12-22	16	@ LV	22	Under	—	34 (51%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 33.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.