NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Drake Maye QB

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

229.5 Pass Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · All 55%21/38 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 213.5
Graph avg: 219.8
Graph median: 240.50–380
Over the close: 36%9/25

2026 per game

Pass Yds213.5▼-35.2

Att29.2▲+0.1

Cmp%62.4%▼-6.9

Pass TD1.0▼-0.8

INT1.8▲+1.2

Rush Yds34.0▲+4.1

Snaps63.2▲+0.7

Snap %95.2%▼-1.3

2024

22

Sep 19
243

Oct 13
276

Oct 20
23

Oct 27
206

Nov 03
184

Nov 10
282

Nov 17
222

Nov 24
238

Dec 01
202

Dec 15
261

Dec 22
117

Dec 28
0

Jan 05
2025

287

Sep 07
230

Sep 14
268

Sep 21
203

Sep 28
273

Oct 05
261

Oct 12
222

Oct 19
282

Oct 26
259

Nov 02
270

Nov 09
281

Nov 13
294

Nov 23
282

Dec 01
155

Dec 14
380

Dec 21
256

Dec 28
191

Jan 04
268

Jan 11
179

Jan 18
86

Jan 25
295

Feb 08
2026

178

Sep 09
208

Sep 20
199

Sep 27
269

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 229.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 213.7
Away 53% 10/19 · avg 225.8
vs LV 100% 1/1 · avg 287.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 209.5 60% 23/38
O 219.5 60% 23/38
O 229.5 Today 55% 21/38
O 239.5 50% 19/38
O 249.5 47% 18/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds201.2#28
Yds/Att6.7#20
Cmp%66.6%#5
Pass TD1.3#22
Pass Att29.9#29

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-16.7

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	225	270.7	-17%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	255	316.0	-19%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	192	208.0	-8%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	220	164.0	+34%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.0 yds	4%9.0 yds	11%12.7 yds
Short	30%5.9 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 229.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	269	Over	231.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	199	Under	222.5	51 (81%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	208	Under	224.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	178	Under	232.5	71 (100%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	295	Over	224.5	71 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	86	Under	223.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	179	Under	220.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	268	Over	268.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	191	Under	187.5	45 (76%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	256	Over	257.5	52 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	380	Over	338.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	155	Under	230.5	52 (100%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	282	Over	274.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	294	Over	285.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	281	Over	281.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	270	Over	280.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	259	Over	265.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	282	Over	225.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	222	Under	228.5	55 (85%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	261	Over	234.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	273	Over	277.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CAR	203	Under	216.5	43 (88%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	268	Over	280.5	74 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	230	Over	257.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	287	Over	271.5	71 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	0	Under	—	3 (5%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	117	Under	—	43 (81%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	261	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	202	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	238	Over	—	71 (99%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	222	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	282	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CHI	184	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	206	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	23	Under	—	20 (30%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	276	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs HOU	243	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	22	Under	—	16 (31%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 226.5PrizePicks 227.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 15m ago.