NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jauan Jennings WR

MIN vs NO · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

17.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 83%29/35 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 48.4
Graph median: 41.00–175
Over the close: 20%4/20

2026 per game

Targets1.3▼-4.4

Rec0.7▼-2.7

Rec Yds3.0▼-38.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.5

Snaps50.7▼-2.2

Snap %74.3%▼-8.4

2024

64

Sep 09
37

Sep 15
175

Sep 22
88

Sep 29
13

Oct 06
27

Oct 10
93

Nov 10
91

Nov 17
40

Nov 24
56

Dec 01
90

Dec 08
31

Dec 12
51

Dec 22
67

Dec 30
52

Jan 05
2025

16

Sep 07
89

Sep 14
24

Sep 28
7

Oct 12
31

Oct 19
45

Oct 26
41

Nov 02
71

Nov 09
54

Nov 16
41

Nov 24
39

Nov 30
37

Dec 14
71

Dec 22
42

Dec 28
35

Jan 03
45

Jan 11
23

Jan 17
2026

0

Sep 13
1

Sep 27
8

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 17.5

Home 81% 13/16 · avg 45.8
Away 84% 16/19 · avg 50.6
vs NO 100% 1/1 · avg 89.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 7.5 91% 32/35
O 12.5 89% 31/35
O 17.5 Today 83% 29/35
O 22.5 83% 29/35
O 27.5 74% 26/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NO

What NO allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds114.7#31
Receptions9.4#31
Targets16.1#27
Yds/Target7.1#29
Rec TD0.8#16

WRs vs NO · 2026

Each main WR who faced NO this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.4

Avg diff %+26%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 05	Drake London	96	91.3	+5%
Oct 05	Jahan Dotson	54	13.7	+295%
Sep 27	Tre Tucker	43	63.3	-32%
Sep 27	Cody White	4	20.0	-80%
Sep 20	Chris Moore	6	28.5	-79%
Sep 20	Rashod Bateman	88	27.7	+218%
Sep 13	Amon-Ra St. Brown	67	78.7	-15%
Sep 13	Isaac TeSlaa	0	62.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.4 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%6.9 yds
Short	26%4.6 yds	18%7.0 yds	35%5.2 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.7 yds#26	2%16.0 yds#15	7%12.2 yds#10
Short	33%6.3 yds#9	13%6.7 yds#17	37%4.6 yds#29

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%0.0 yds	10%30.5 yds	3%0.0 yds
Short	36%4.9 yds	18%5.4 yds	23%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	3	5.7	17	26.2%
2	T.J. Hockenson TE	4	6.5	26	24.5%
3	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	4	3.8	15	13.1%
5	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
6	Tai Felton WR	2	1.5	3	5.5%
7	Jauan Jennings WR	3	1.3	4	5.1%
8	DeeJay Dallas RB	4	0.8	3	3.2%
9	Gavin Bartholomew TE	1	1.0	1	3.0%
10	Myles Price WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 17.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	8	Under	26.5	74 (95%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	1	Under	14.5	47 (80%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	0	Under	18.5	31 (48%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	23	Over	40.5	47 (78%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	45	Over	45.5	57 (97%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	35	Over	35.5	37 (88%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	42	Over	15.5	65 (90%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	71	Over	60.5	54 (82%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	37	Over	37.5	60 (81%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	39	Over	36.5	54 (81%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	41	Over	41.5	63 (90%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	54	Over	55.5	41 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	71	Over	80.5	58 (92%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	41	Over	49.5	52 (79%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	45	Over	45.5	41 (85%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	31	Over	31.5	57 (85%)
2025-10-12	6	@ TB	7	Under	15.5	53 (77%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	24	Over	24.5	48 (73%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NO	89	Over	38.5	62 (87%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	16	Under	47.5	50 (66%)
2025-01-05	18	@ ARI	52	Over	—	25 (33%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	67	Over	—	60 (94%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	51	Over	—	60 (94%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	31	Over	—	51 (94%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	90	Over	—	45 (74%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	56	Over	—	46 (96%)
2024-11-24	12	@ GB	40	Over	—	45 (92%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	91	Over	—	60 (95%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	93	Over	—	58 (91%)
2024-10-10	6	@ SEA	27	Over	—	34 (52%)
2024-10-06	5	vs ARI	13	Under	—	36 (56%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NE	88	Over	—	36 (57%)
2024-09-22	3	@ LA	175	Over	—	60 (85%)
2024-09-15	2	@ MIN	37	Over	—	38 (54%)
2024-09-09	1	vs NYJ	64	Over	—	35 (49%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.