NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyjae Spears RB

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

14.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 16.2
Graph avg: 23.8
Graph median: 18.5-1–95
Over the close: 35%6/17

2026 per game

Carries3.8▼-1.8

Rush Yds16.2▼-5.5

Rush TD0.0▼-0.2

Targets1.8▼-2.1

Rec1.2▼-2.2

Rec Yds10.0▼-10.3

Snaps23.8▼-5.0

Snap %42.2%▼-3.7

2024

5

Dec 15
27

Dec 22
95

Dec 29
2025

14

Oct 05
31

Oct 12
22

Oct 19
59

Oct 26
26

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
-1

Nov 30
19

Dec 07
34

Dec 14
52

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
18

Jan 04
2026

12

Sep 13
41

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 47% 7/15 · avg 16.1
Away 71% 10/14 · avg 29.9
vs HOU 0% 0/1 · avg 3.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 80% 16/20
O 9.5 65% 13/20
O 14.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 19.5 45% 9/20
O 24.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds75.3#27
Yds/Carry3.5#30
Rush TD0.5#23
Targets5.5#14
Rec Yds26.5#25

RBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main RB who faced HOU this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-11.3

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Javonte Williams	62	53.5	+16%
Sep 27	Jonathan Taylor	68	95.0	-28%
Sep 20	Chase Brown	80	42.3	+89%
Sep 13	James Cook	57	121.3	-53%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	34%3.2 yds	8%3.0 yds	58%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	7	Under	14.5	23 (36%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	5	Under	16.5	28 (47%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	41	Over	17.5	19 (36%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	12	Under	26.5	25 (50%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	18	Over	14.5	25 (46%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	2	Under	2.5	39 (53%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	52	Over	14.5	34 (47%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	34	Over	15.5	22 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	19	Over	25.5	28 (42%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	-1	Under	5.5	28 (47%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	4	Under	24.5	33 (43%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	3	Under	29.5	31 (53%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	26	Over	26.5	21 (45%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	59	Over	50.5	37 (52%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	22	Over	20.5	23 (43%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	31	Over	35.5	36 (59%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	14	Under	17.5	17 (25%)
2024-12-29	17	@ JAX	95	Over	—	45 (65%)
2024-12-22	16	@ IND	27	Over	—	37 (61%)
2024-12-15	15	vs CIN	5	Under	—	39 (56%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.