NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

244.5 Pass Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 259.8
Graph avg: 236.1
Graph median: 252.0123–334
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds259.8▲+25.1

Att29.8▲+0.1

Cmp%66.4%▼-3.3

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds29.5▼-8.2

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

2025

213

Sep 18
209

Sep 28
253

Oct 05
180

Oct 13
163

Oct 26
273

Nov 02
306

Nov 09
317

Nov 16
253

Nov 20
123

Nov 30
251

Dec 07
193

Dec 14
130

Dec 21
262

Dec 28
273

Jan 11
283

Jan 17
2026

334

Sep 13
248

Sep 17
204

Sep 27
253

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 244.5

Home 57% 12/21 · avg 241.7
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 227.8
vs LAR 100% 1/1 · avg 342.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 224.5 60% 12/20
O 234.5 60% 12/20
O 244.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 254.5 35% 7/20
O 264.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds212.1#22
Yds/Att6.4#23
Cmp%58.8%#28
Pass TD1.8#7
Pass Att33.0#13

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-68.5

Avg diff %-32%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	93	206.7	-55%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	186	211.0	-12%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	111	184.0	-40%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	205	267.3	-23%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.2 yds	7%17.0 yds	7%15.6 yds
Short	29%8.1 yds	12%7.4 yds	38%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 244.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	253	Over	242.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	204	Under	239.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	248	Over	253.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	334	Over	220.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	283	Over	211.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	273	Over	274.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	262	Over	198.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	130	Under	122.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	193	Under	225.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	251	Over	229.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	123	Under	115.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	253	Over	220.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	317	Over	308.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	306	Over	309.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	273	Over	260.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	163	Under	180.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	180	Under	195.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	253	Over	261.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	209	Under	214.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	213	Under	200.5	60 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 244.5PrizePicks 245.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.