NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Mike Gesicki TE

CIN vs MIA · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

33.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 48%15/31 Odds imply —

Season avg: 51.7
Graph avg: 36.4
Graph median: 31.0-9–100
Over the close: 60%9/15

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+1.5

Rec3.7▲+1.3

Rec Yds51.7▲+26.1

Rec TD1.0▲+0.8

Snaps32.3▲+5.8

Snap %48.7%▲+7.2

2024

18

Sep 08
91

Sep 15
47

Sep 23
-9

Sep 29
31

Oct 06
2

Oct 20
73

Oct 27
100

Nov 03
30

Nov 07
0

Nov 17
53

Dec 01
24

Dec 09
37

Dec 15
14

Dec 22
86

Dec 28
68

Jan 04
2025

14

Sep 07
18

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
8

Sep 29
15

Oct 05
35

Nov 23
19

Nov 27
86

Dec 07
11

Dec 14
35

Dec 21
47

Dec 28
13

Jan 04
2026

78

Sep 13
37

Sep 27
40

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 56% 9/16 · avg 42.4
Away 40% 6/15 · avg 29.9
vs MIA 100% 1/1 · avg 35.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 23.5 58% 18/31
O 28.5 55% 17/31
O 33.5 Today 48% 15/31
O 38.5 36% 11/31
O 43.5 32% 10/31

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs MIA

What MIA allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds70.7#4
Receptions7.0#3
Targets8.5#4
Yds/Target8.3#6
Rec TD0.3#24

TEs vs MIA · 2026

Each main TE who faced MIA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+25.5

Avg diff %+95%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	T.J. Hockenson	119	25.3	+370%
Sep 27	Travis Kelce	59	62.3	-5%
Sep 20	George Kittle	80	54.7	+46%
Sep 13	Michael Mayer	32	45.7	-30%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.4 yds	3%14.9 yds	7%11.7 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	20%8.2 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIA defense

MIA defense: Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.1 yds#11	4%14.5 yds#19	8%11.2 yds#14
Short	29%6.5 yds#6	15%8.6 yds#5	37%6.3 yds#6

Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.0 yds	12%15.8 yds	2%18.0 yds
Short	39%5.3 yds	7%11.3 yds	29%10.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	4	9.8	39	24.8%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	4	7.0	28	19.7%
3	Chase Brown RB	4	6.0	24	15.0%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	3	5.0	15	12.7%
6	Erick All TE	1	3.0	3	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	4	4.0	16	9.2%
8	Drew Sample TE	2	2.5	5	7.1%
9	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
10	Samaje Perine RB	4	2.0	8	5.5%

Game log · 31 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	40	Over	27.5	47 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	37	Over	24.5	29 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	78	Over	20.5	21 (33%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	13	Under	13.5	26 (38%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	47	Over	15.5	18 (23%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	35	Over	25.5	29 (48%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	11	Under	38.5	43 (57%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	86	Over	45.5	25 (42%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	19	Under	19.5	23 (28%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NE	35	Over	27.5	28 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DET	15	Under	10.5	31 (50%)
2025-09-29	4	@ DEN	8	Under	8.5	27 (56%)
2025-09-21	3	@ MIN	6	Under	20.5	17 (30%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	18	Under	10.5	36 (52%)
2025-09-07	1	@ CLE	14	Under	14.5	16 (31%)
2025-01-04	18	@ PIT	68	Over	—	51 (69%)
2024-12-28	17	vs DEN	86	Over	—	51 (57%)
2024-12-22	16	vs CLE	14	Under	—	19 (34%)
2024-12-15	15	@ TEN	37	Over	—	22 (32%)
2024-12-09	14	@ DAL	24	Under	—	20 (28%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PIT	53	Over	—	27 (44%)
2024-11-17	11	@ LAC	0	Under	—	51 (62%)
2024-11-07	10	@ BAL	30	Under	—	58 (71%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LV	100	Over	—	27 (36%)
2024-10-27	8	vs PHI	73	Over	—	31 (53%)
2024-10-20	7	@ CLE	2	Under	—	17 (31%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BAL	31	Under	—	29 (43%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CAR	-9	Under	—	22 (33%)
2024-09-23	3	vs WAS	47	Over	—	31 (50%)
2024-09-15	2	@ KC	91	Over	—	30 (47%)
2024-09-08	1	vs NE	18	Under	—	18 (35%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 33.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.