NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Gunnar Helm TE

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

18.5 Rec Yds O -105U -125

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 48.0% Over

Season avg: 15.0
Graph avg: 20.9
Graph median: 15.51–51
Over the close: 65%13/20

2026 per game

Targets3.0▼-0.4

Rec2.2▼-0.5

Rec Yds15.0▼-7.3

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps44.8▲+11.4

Snap %79.2%▲+26.7

2025

16

Sep 07
9

Sep 14
27

Sep 21
12

Sep 28
34

Oct 05
15

Oct 12
36

Oct 19
23

Oct 26
15

Nov 02
29

Nov 16
51

Nov 23
23

Nov 30
8

Dec 07
49

Dec 14
9

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
2026

28

Sep 13
13

Sep 20
14

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 21.9
Away 33% 3/9 · avg 19.6
vs HOU 50% 1/2 · avg 20.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 85% 17/20
O 13.5 65% 13/20
O 18.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 23.5 35% 7/20
O 28.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds54.0#15
Receptions6.0#8
Targets8.1#8
Yds/Target6.7#20
Rec TD0.4#11

TEs vs HOU · 2026

Each main TE who faced HOU this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+33.9

Avg diff %+82%

Beat their average67% (2/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jake Ferguson	11	22.8	-52%
Sep 27	Tyler Warren	55	25.0	+120%
Sep 13	Dalton Kincaid	130	46.7	+179%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	3%34.0 yds
Short	32%4.4 yds	16%5.0 yds	46%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	5	Under	19.5	46 (72%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	14	Under	21.5	49 (82%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	13	Under	22.5	46 (87%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	28	Over	20.5	38 (76%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	1	Under	1.5	43 (58%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	9	Under	24.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	49	Over	40.5	26 (49%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	8	Under	8.5	44 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	23	Over	20.5	31 (53%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	51	Over	24.5	48 (63%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	29	Over	12.5	38 (64%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	15	Under	10.5	21 (45%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	23	Over	10.5	37 (52%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	36	Over	16.5	28 (53%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	15	Under	10.5	29 (48%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	34	Over	13.5	44 (66%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	12	Under	10.5	20 (40%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	27	Over	6.5	27 (39%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	9	Under	8.5	22 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	16	Under	16.5	23 (40%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 14m ago.