NFL Prop Research

RD

Rico Dowdle RB

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply —

Season avg

18.5

Graph avg

56.1

Graph median

41.59–206

Over the close

39%7/18

2026 per game

Carries7.5▼-5.9

Rush Yds18.5▼-41.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets3.5▲+0.6

Rec2.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds14.0▼-2.8

Snaps28.5▼-5.7

Snap %42.0%▼-12.9

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

• Home 68% 13/19 · avg 63.3
• Away 71% 12/17 · avg 58.8
• vs IND No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 19.5 75% 15/20
• O 24.5 70% 14/20
• O 29.5 Today 65% 13/20
• O 34.5 55% 11/20
• O 39.5 50% 10/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs IND

What IND allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rush Yds97.0#16
• Yds/Carry4.2#20
• Rush TD0.7#16
• Targets4.8#24
• Rec Yds24.9#26

RBs vs IND · 2026

Each main RB who faced IND this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.4

Avg diff %+2%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	WAS Jacory Croskey-Merritt	15	47.3	-68%
Sep 27	HOU David Montgomery	33	31.3	+5%
Sep 20	KC Kenneth Walker III	117	140.0	-16%
Sep 13	BAL Derrick Henry	144	76.7	+88%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	56%4.0 yds	11%6.5 yds	33%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · PIT 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	22	Under	33.5	18 (26%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	15	Under	45.5	39 (58%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	9	Under	47.5	24 (36%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	10	Under	30.5	27 (53%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	59	Over	46.5	34 (64%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	29	Under	31.5	31 (57%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	49	Over	56.5	34 (60%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	58	Over	55.5	27 (42%)
2025-11-24	12	@ SF	38	Over	38.5	30 (65%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	45	Over	44.5	66 (82%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NO	53	Over	57.5	42 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	130	Over	—	42 (72%)
2025-10-26	8	vs BUF	54	Over	50.5	22 (36%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	79	Over	54.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DAL	183	Over	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIA	206	Over	59.5	47 (67%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	32	Over	25.5	27 (39%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ATL	30	Over	33.5	23 (40%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	9	Under	9.5	25 (29%)
2025-09-07	1	@ JAX	12	Under	12.5	22 (34%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5Underdog 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.