NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Pat Freiermuth TE

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

27.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 31.2
Graph avg: 31.4
Graph median: 27.56–111
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Targets4.8▲+1.2

Rec3.5▲+0.9

Rec Yds31.2▼-0.2

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps46.5▲+13.4

Snap %68.5%▲+15.0

2025

28

Sep 07
31

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
11

Oct 12
111

Oct 16
13

Oct 26
27

Nov 02
33

Nov 09
19

Nov 16
19

Nov 23
9

Dec 07
45

Dec 15
20

Dec 21
63

Dec 28
51

Jan 04
18

Jan 12
2026

46

Sep 13
32

Sep 20
30

Sep 27
17

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 34.6
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 33.7
vs IND 50% 1/2 · avg 42.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 75% 15/20
O 22.5 55% 11/20
O 27.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 32.5 30% 6/20
O 37.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs IND

What IND allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds60.1#8
Receptions5.4#13
Targets7.7#15
Yds/Target7.8#9
Rec TD0.3#18

TEs vs IND · 2026

Each main TE who faced IND this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.9

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Colson Yankoff	0	5.3	-100%
Sep 27	Dalton Schultz	30	61.3	-51%
Sep 20	Travis Kelce	101	48.3	+109%
Sep 13	Mark Andrews	49	33.3	+47%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%0.0 yds	9%18.0 yds	9%4.8 yds
Short	32%7.1 yds	18%10.4 yds	25%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	17	Under	27.5	54 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	30	Over	36.5	37 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	32	Over	31.5	46 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	46	Over	26.5	49 (73%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	18	Under	18.5	39 (68%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	51	Over	20.5	52 (69%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	63	Over	24.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	20	Under	20.5	32 (43%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	45	Over	45.5	28 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	9	Under	17.5	31 (60%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	19	Under	18.5	34 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	19	Under	33.5	30 (46%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	33	Over	22.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	27	Under	20.5	29 (47%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	13	Under	—	27 (43%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	111	Over	40.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	11	Under	11.5	21 (36%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	6	Under	6.5	38 (70%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	31	Over	10.5	31 (50%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	28	Over	27.5	28 (50%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 16m ago.