NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Warren TE

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

46.5 Rec Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · All 38%8/21 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 32.5
Graph avg: 45.1
Graph median: 43.013–99
Over the close: 24%5/21

2026 per game

Targets6.8▲+0.2

Rec5.8▲+1.3

Rec Yds32.5▼-15.6

Rec TD0.5▲+0.3

Snaps57.8▲+4.9

Snap %90.2%▲+6.4

2025

76

Sep 07
79

Sep 14
38

Sep 21
70

Sep 28
44

Oct 05
63

Oct 12
69

Oct 19
53

Oct 26
26

Nov 02
99

Nov 09
45

Nov 23
22

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
19

Dec 14
30

Dec 22
43

Dec 28
26

Jan 04
2026

13

Sep 13
21

Sep 20
55

Sep 27
41

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 46.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 52.5
Away 20% 2/10 · avg 37.0
vs PIT 0% 0/1 · avg 26.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 36.5 62% 13/21
O 41.5 52% 11/21
O 46.5 Today 38% 8/21
O 51.5 38% 8/21
O 56.5 29% 6/21

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds52.8#16
Receptions5.1#19
Targets7.1#18
Yds/Target7.4#13
Rec TD0.6#8

TEs vs PIT · 2026

Each main TE who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.6

Avg diff %-36%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Harold Fannin Jr.	27	42.0	-36%
Sep 27	Mike Gesicki	37	59.0	-37%
Sep 20	Hunter Henry	40	31.0	+29%
Sep 13	Kyle Pitts	0	22.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%0.0 yds	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	38%4.4 yds	28%5.7 yds	31%3.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 21 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 46.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	41	Under	59.5	56 (85%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	55	Over	46.5	67 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	21	Under	42.5	58 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	13	Under	47.5	50 (93%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	26	Under	49.5	53 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	43	Under	49.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	30	Under	35.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	19	Under	16.5	49 (82%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	15	Under	20.5	65 (93%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	22	Under	50.5	47 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	45	Under	50.5	44 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	99	Over	60.5	68 (88%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	26	Under	61.5	66 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	53	Over	55.5	39 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	69	Over	70.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	63	Over	70.5	52 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	44	Under	62.5	47 (71%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	70	Over	55.5	54 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	38	Under	49.5	39 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	79	Over	83.5	66 (93%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	76	Over	65.5	53 (73%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 47.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.