NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Chris Rodriguez RB

JAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

26.5 Rush Yds O -108U -116

Hit rate · All 52%12/23 Odds imply 49.2% Over

Season avg: 27.0
Graph avg: 34.0
Graph median: 35.00–94
Over the close: 36%5/14

2026 per game

Carries6.5▼-2.8

Rush Yds27.0▼-14.7

Rush TD0.5+0.0

Targets0.0▼-0.3

Rec0.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds0.0▼-2.5

Snaps16.0▼-5.2

Snap %27.0%▼-6.7

2024

52

Nov 03
4

Nov 10
94

Dec 01
2

Dec 15
5

Dec 22
16

Dec 29
0

Jan 05
2025

39

Sep 21
59

Sep 28
7

Oct 05
12

Oct 19
2

Oct 27
65

Nov 02
16

Nov 09
79

Nov 16
41

Nov 30
52

Dec 07
63

Dec 20
65

Jan 04
2026

23

Sep 13
13

Sep 20
37

Sep 27
35

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 26.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 36.6
Away 50% 6/12 · avg 31.5
vs PHI 67% 2/3 · avg 44.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 16.5 56% 13/23
O 21.5 56% 13/23
O 26.5 Today 52% 12/23
O 31.5 52% 12/23
O 36.5 48% 11/23

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds89.3#22
Yds/Carry3.8#26
Rush TD0.6#19
Targets6.3#7
Rec Yds39.0#5

RBs vs PHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced PHI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.8

Avg diff %-20%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kyren Williams	80	71.3	+12%
Sep 28	Kyle Monangai	31	97.7	-68%
Sep 20	Tony Pollard	64	52.3	+22%
Sep 13	Rachaad White	22	39.0	-44%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	5%16.9 yds	8%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.5 yds	16%6.2 yds	28%7.6 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%8.9 yds#22	4%19.6 yds#5	8%10.2 yds#20
Short	32%5.8 yds#16	19%6.0 yds#24	34%4.6 yds#28

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 4 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	50%3.0 yds	0%	50%12.0 yds

Last 4 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	4	6.5	26	25.7%
2	Brenton Strange TE	4	4.5	18	18.7%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	4	3.8	15	15.0%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	4	3.5	14	13.8%
5	Bhayshul Tuten RB	4	1.8	7	7.0%
6	Josh Cameron WR	4	1.5	6	6.4%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	3	1.3	4	5.7%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	4	0.8	3	3.0%
10	Quintin Morris TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 23 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 26.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	35	Over	17.5	15 (25%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	37	Over	20.5	13 (21%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	13	Under	24.5	13 (22%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	23	Under	37.5	23 (40%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PHI	65	Over	—	29 (42%)
2025-12-20	16	vs PHI	63	Over	32.5	28 (52%)
2025-12-07	14	@ MIN	52	Over	53.5	22 (42%)
2025-11-30	13	vs DEN	41	Over	40.5	37 (41%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIA	79	Over	79.5	30 (45%)
2025-11-09	10	vs DET	16	Under	16.5	18 (33%)
2025-11-02	9	vs SEA	65	Over	—	22 (34%)
2025-10-27	8	@ KC	2	Under	2.5	2 (4%)
2025-10-19	7	@ DAL	12	Under	10.5	9 (13%)
2025-10-05	5	@ LAC	7	Under	10.5	15 (25%)
2025-09-28	4	@ ATL	59	Over	65.5	20 (35%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LV	39	Over	43.5	22 (38%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DAL	0	Under	—	1 (2%)
2024-12-29	17	vs ATL	16	Under	—	18 (22%)
2024-12-22	16	vs PHI	5	Under	—	7 (10%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NO	2	Under	—	3 (4%)
2024-12-01	13	vs TEN	94	Over	—	23 (28%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PIT	4	Under	—	5 (8%)
2024-11-03	9	@ NYG	52	Over	—	20 (32%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 26.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.