NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tre Tucker WR

LV vs NE · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

40.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 40%15/38 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 58.2
Graph avg: 38.6
Graph median: 29.00–145
Over the close: 43%9/21

2026 per game

Targets5.8▲+0.3

Rec3.8▲+0.4

Rec Yds58.2▲+17.3

Rec TD0.2-0.0

Snaps45.2▼-10.2

Snap %63.5%▼-31.3

2024

22

Sep 08
13

Sep 15
96

Sep 22
41

Sep 29
18

Oct 06
0

Oct 13
36

Oct 20
26

Oct 27
5

Nov 03
28

Nov 17
82

Nov 24
58

Nov 29
7

Dec 08
18

Dec 16
41

Dec 22
24

Dec 29
24

Jan 05
2025

54

Sep 07
12

Sep 15
145

Sep 21
13

Sep 28
62

Oct 05
70

Oct 12
33

Oct 19
38

Nov 02
28

Nov 06
47

Nov 17
28

Nov 23
20

Nov 30
24

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
43

Dec 21
49

Dec 28
30

Jan 04
2026

27

Sep 13
119

Sep 20
43

Sep 27
44

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 40.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 37.4
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 39.9
vs NE 100% 1/1 · avg 54.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 30.5 47% 18/38
O 35.5 45% 17/38
O 40.5 Today 40% 15/38
O 45.5 26% 10/38
O 50.5 21% 8/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NE

What NE allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds119.1#29
Receptions11.7#10
Targets20.5#5
Yds/Target5.8#32
Rec TD0.8#20

WRs vs NE · 2026

Each main WR who faced NE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.2

Avg diff %-23%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	DJ Moore	11	55.7	-80%
Oct 04	Josh Palmer	3	38.5	-92%
Sep 27	Parker Washington	40	62.7	-36%
Sep 27	Jakobi Meyers	64	33.7	+90%
Sep 20	DK Metcalf	27	62.0	-56%
Sep 20	Roman Wilson	28	53.3	-48%
Sep 09	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	122	119.7	+2%
Sep 09	Cooper Kupp	35	26.3	+33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.4 yds	3%5.3 yds	6%8.0 yds
Short	28%6.1 yds	19%6.3 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%4.0 yds#32	4%10.5 yds#28	5%9.4 yds#24
Short	31%5.3 yds#24	17%7.0 yds#16	37%4.2 yds#32

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%14.7 yds	8%5.8 yds	10%5.2 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	10%7.2 yds	31%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	2	12.0	24	33.1%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	4	6.0	24	17.9%
3	Michael Mayer TE	4	6.0	24	17.2%
4	Tre Tucker WR	4	5.8	23	17.0%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	4	2.5	10	7.2%
8	Ian Thomas TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
9	Malik Benson WR	4	1.0	4	3.4%
10	Dareke Young WR	4	0.8	3	1.9%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 40.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	44	Over	38.5	56 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	43	Over	39.5	40 (57%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	119	Over	36.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	27	Under	45.5	48 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	vs KC	30	Under	30.5	61 (98%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	49	Over	49.5	59 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	43	Over	27.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	0	Under	10.5	39 (93%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	24	Under	24.5	47 (94%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	20	Under	20.5	46 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	28	Under	28.5	75 (95%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	47	Over	47.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	28	Under	28.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	38	Under	10.5	62 (97%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	33	Under	25.5	31 (89%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	70	Over	70.5	56 (92%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	62	Over	51.5	60 (88%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	13	Under	9.5	51 (98%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	145	Over	27.5	62 (94%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	12	Under	15.5	64 (91%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	54	Over	55.5	57 (90%)
2025-01-05	18	vs LAC	24	Under	—	41 (80%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NO	24	Under	—	69 (90%)
2024-12-22	16	vs JAX	41	Over	—	68 (92%)
2024-12-16	15	vs ATL	18	Under	—	64 (96%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TB	7	Under	—	59 (88%)
2024-11-29	13	@ KC	58	Over	—	66 (97%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DEN	82	Over	—	69 (90%)
2024-11-17	11	@ MIA	28	Under	—	58 (89%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CIN	5	Under	—	56 (92%)
2024-10-27	8	vs KC	26	Under	—	53 (91%)
2024-10-20	7	@ LA	36	Under	—	75 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	vs PIT	0	Under	—	60 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	@ DEN	18	Under	—	59 (84%)
2024-09-29	4	vs CLE	41	Over	—	50 (85%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CAR	96	Over	—	52 (81%)
2024-09-15	2	@ BAL	13	Under	—	38 (60%)
2024-09-08	1	@ LAC	22	Under	—	47 (78%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 39.5PrizePicks 40.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.