NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dalton Schultz TE

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

34.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 53.5
Graph avg: 47.7
Graph median: 41.08–140
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Targets6.8▲+0.9

Rec5.2▲+0.7

Rec Yds53.5▲+9.5

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps42.5▼-4.5

Snap %63.0%▼-5.6

2025

30

Sep 28
60

Oct 05
98

Oct 20
24

Oct 26
77

Nov 02
53

Nov 09
51

Nov 16
8

Nov 20
55

Nov 30
22

Dec 07
76

Dec 14
35

Dec 21
19

Dec 27
73

Jan 04
12

Jan 12
47

Jan 18
2026

35

Sep 13
140

Sep 20
30

Sep 27
9

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 41.6
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 37.9
vs TEN 25% 1/4 · avg 32.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 24.5 70% 14/20
O 29.5 70% 14/20
O 34.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 39.5 50% 10/20
O 44.5 50% 10/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds55.5#14
Receptions5.4#14
Targets7.1#19
Yds/Target7.8#8
Rec TD0.7#7

TEs vs TEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-18.3

Avg diff %+35%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Mark Andrews	27	40.7	-34%
Sep 27	Isaiah Likely	13	59.0	-78%
Sep 20	Johnny Mundt	8	2.0	+300%
Sep 13	Kenyon Sadiq	21	40.7	-48%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	2%25.0 yds	4%8.5 yds
Short	29%8.6 yds	16%10.4 yds	49%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	9	Under	40.5	35 (64%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	30	Under	49.5	29 (54%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	140	Over	43.5	54 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	35	Over	34.5	52 (66%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	47	Over	40.5	12 (16%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	12	Under	12.5	54 (79%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	73	Over	88.5	38 (56%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	19	Under	19.5	51 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	35	Over	40.5	46 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	76	Over	76.5	53 (79%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	22	Under	22.5	52 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	55	Over	41.5	55 (72%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	8	Under	8.5	48 (81%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	51	Over	35.5	48 (69%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	53	Over	38.5	58 (77%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	77	Over	28.5	58 (79%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	24	Under	30.5	49 (61%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	98	Over	—	57 (75%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	60	Over	60.5	41 (59%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	30	Under	30.5	60 (85%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 34.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.