NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Khalil Shakir WR

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

45.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 44.0
Graph avg: 48.8
Graph median: 45.0-3–110
Over the close: 60%12/20

2026 per game

Targets5.8▼-0.7

Rec3.8▼-1.3

Rec Yds44.0▼-4.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps40.0▼-0.6

Snap %62.7%▲+2.1

2025

45

Sep 18
69

Sep 28
45

Oct 05
33

Oct 13
88

Oct 26
43

Nov 02
58

Nov 09
-3

Nov 16
110

Nov 20
5

Nov 30
16

Dec 07
65

Dec 14
34

Dec 21
35

Dec 28
82

Jan 11
75

Jan 17
2026

50

Sep 13
38

Sep 17
6

Sep 27
82

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 45.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 45.0
Away 68% 13/19 · avg 58.1
vs LAR 100% 1/1 · avg 106.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 35.5 65% 13/20
O 40.5 60% 12/20
O 45.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 50.5 40% 8/20
O 55.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds134.4#19
Receptions10.0#23
Targets17.2#17
Yds/Target7.8#18
Rec TD1.3#4

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-16.8

Avg diff %-13%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	18	59.7	-70%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	27	12.7	+113%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	10	58.3	-83%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	44	29.7	+48%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	69.0	-99%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	30	32.0	-6%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	49	54.7	-10%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	48	45.7	+5%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	6%22.0 yds	2%37.0 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	20%8.8 yds	41%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 45.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	82	Over	38.5	45 (76%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	6	Under	42.5	48 (73%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	38	Under	43.5	36 (49%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	50	Over	36.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	75	Over	50.5	50 (64%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	82	Over	75.5	45 (71%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	35	Under	39.5	59 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	34	Under	29.5	24 (48%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	65	Over	44.5	48 (69%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	16	Under	25.5	32 (50%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	5	Under	5.5	36 (49%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	110	Over	30.5	44 (67%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	-3	Under	10.5	30 (54%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	58	Over	47.5	45 (66%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	43	Under	43.5	40 (61%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	88	Over	48.5	30 (48%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	33	Under	45.5	34 (60%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	45	Under	40.5	43 (63%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	69	Over	65.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	45	Under	30.5	42 (70%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 46.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.