NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Khalil Shakir WR

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

45.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 55%22/40 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 44.0
Graph avg: 51.2
Graph median: 50.0-3–110
Over the close: 59%13/22

2026 per game

Targets5.8▼-0.7

Rec3.8▼-1.3

Rec Yds44.0▼-4.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps40.0▼-0.6

Snap %62.7%▲+2.1

2024

42

Sep 08
54

Sep 12
72

Sep 23
62

Sep 29
19

Oct 14
65

Oct 20
107

Oct 27
50

Nov 03
58

Nov 10
70

Nov 17
30

Dec 01
106

Dec 08
39

Dec 15
22

Dec 22
25

Dec 29
61

Jan 12
67

Jan 19
46

Jan 26
2025

64

Sep 07
12

Sep 14
45

Sep 18
69

Sep 28
45

Oct 05
33

Oct 13
88

Oct 26
43

Nov 02
58

Nov 09
-3

Nov 16
110

Nov 20
5

Nov 30
16

Dec 07
65

Dec 14
34

Dec 21
35

Dec 28
82

Jan 11
75

Jan 17
2026

50

Sep 13
38

Sep 17
6

Sep 27
82

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 45.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 45.0
Away 68% 13/19 · avg 58.1
vs LAR 100% 1/1 · avg 106.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 35.5 70% 28/40
O 40.5 65% 26/40
O 45.5 Today 55% 22/40
O 50.5 48% 19/40
O 55.5 45% 18/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds134.4#19
Receptions10.0#23
Targets17.2#17
Yds/Target7.8#18
Rec TD1.3#4

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-16.8

Avg diff %-13%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	18	59.7	-70%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	27	12.7	+113%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	10	58.3	-83%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	44	29.7	+48%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	69.0	-99%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	30	32.0	-6%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	49	54.7	-10%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	48	45.7	+5%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	6%22.0 yds	2%37.0 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	20%8.8 yds	41%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 45.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	82	Over	38.5	45 (76%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	6	Under	42.5	48 (73%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	38	Under	43.5	36 (49%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	50	Over	36.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	75	Over	50.5	50 (64%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	82	Over	75.5	45 (71%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	35	Under	39.5	59 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	34	Under	29.5	24 (48%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	65	Over	44.5	48 (69%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	16	Under	25.5	32 (50%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	5	Under	5.5	36 (49%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	110	Over	30.5	44 (67%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	-3	Under	10.5	30 (54%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	58	Over	47.5	45 (66%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	43	Under	43.5	40 (61%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	88	Over	48.5	30 (48%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	33	Under	45.5	34 (60%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	45	Under	40.5	43 (63%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	69	Over	65.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	45	Under	30.5	42 (70%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	12	Under	15.5	37 (49%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	64	Over	60.5	60 (71%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	46	Over	—	57 (78%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	67	Over	—	41 (67%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	61	Over	—	40 (53%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	25	Under	—	43 (61%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	22	Under	—	44 (75%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	39	Under	—	41 (59%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	106	Over	—	47 (78%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	30	Under	—	29 (50%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	70	Over	—	52 (71%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	58	Over	—	53 (72%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	50	Over	—	35 (53%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	107	Over	—	44 (58%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	65	Over	—	38 (69%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	19	Under	—	26 (38%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	62	Over	—	35 (59%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	72	Over	—	35 (55%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	54	Over	—	31 (69%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	42	Under	—	33 (53%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 46.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.