NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Michael Wilson WR

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

75.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 22%8/37 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 64.5
Graph avg: 49.0
Graph median: 40.00–185
Over the close: 50%9/18

2026 per game

Targets11.0▲+3.6

Rec6.2▲+1.7

Rec Yds64.5▲+5.3

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps63.5▲+9.2

Snap %91.5%▲+10.1

2024

5

Sep 08
31

Sep 15
64

Sep 22
38

Sep 29
78

Oct 06
21

Oct 13
15

Oct 21
31

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
54

Nov 24
55

Dec 01
57

Dec 08
9

Dec 15
44

Dec 22
22

Dec 28
2025

5

Sep 07
11

Sep 14
5

Sep 21
15

Sep 25
16

Oct 05
44

Oct 12
40

Oct 19
61

Nov 03
34

Nov 09
185

Nov 16
118

Nov 23
36

Nov 30
142

Dec 07
54

Dec 14
52

Dec 21
89

Dec 28
99

Jan 04
2026

56

Sep 13
18

Sep 20
89

Sep 27
95

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 75.5

Home 18% 3/17 · avg 49.1
Away 25% 5/20 · avg 48.9
vs DET 0% 0/1 · avg 64.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 55.5 32% 12/37
O 65.5 22% 8/37
O 75.5 Today 22% 8/37
O 85.5 19% 7/37
O 95.5 11% 4/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DET

What DET allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds181.9#2
Receptions13.4#3
Targets19.9#6
Yds/Target9.1#7
Rec TD1.1#7

WRs vs DET · 2026

Each main WR who faced DET this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+27.0

Avg diff %+37%

Beat their average75% (6/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tetairoa McMillan	192	64.3	+198%
Oct 04	Brycen Tremayne	32	27.7	+16%
Sep 27	Garrett Wilson	107	54.3	+97%
Sep 27	Isaiah Williams	21	38.0	-45%
Sep 17	DJ Moore	0	59.3	-100%
Sep 17	Keon Coleman	63	51.3	+23%
Sep 13	Chris Olave	182	103.0	+77%
Sep 13	Devaughn Vele	69	52.3	+32%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%6.9 yds	1%0.0 yds	14%10.5 yds
Short	26%7.5 yds	10%3.7 yds	36%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 75.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	95	Over	56.5	62 (94%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	89	Over	—	81 (93%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	18	Under	46.5	47 (94%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	56	Under	52.5	64 (85%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	99	Over	100.5	51 (93%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	89	Over	47.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	52	Under	54.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	54	Under	58.5	56 (85%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	142	Over	110.5	49 (79%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	36	Under	54.5	57 (93%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	118	Over	100.5	69 (82%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	185	Over	165.5	65 (82%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	34	Under	29.5	70 (92%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	61	Under	—	48 (72%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	40	Under	—	62 (82%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	44	Under	14.5	55 (75%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	16	Under	25.5	47 (69%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	15	Under	21.5	65 (97%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	5	Under	5.5	49 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	11	Under	10.5	38 (69%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	5	Under	24.5	44 (67%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	22	Under	—	69 (87%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	44	Under	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	9	Under	—	52 (74%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	57	Under	—	59 (83%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	55	Under	—	67 (82%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	54	Under	—	48 (83%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	24	Under	—	39 (66%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	0	Under	—	41 (71%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	31	Under	—	46 (70%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	15	Under	—	44 (77%)
2024-10-13	6	@ GB	21	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	@ SF	78	Over	—	42 (72%)
2024-09-29	4	vs WAS	38	Under	—	50 (85%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DET	64	Under	—	53 (90%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LA	31	Under	—	45 (68%)
2024-09-08	1	@ BUF	5	Under	—	49 (80%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 76.5Underdog 79.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.