NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brian Robinson RB

ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET

35.5 Rush Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 48.5
Graph avg: 26.1
Graph median: 23.00–62
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Carries11.0▲+6.0

Rush Yds48.5▲+27.2

Rush TD1.0▲+0.9

Targets0.8▲+0.1

Rec0.8▲+0.3

Rec Yds5.2▲+3.8

Snaps22.8▲+11.6

Snap %35.5%▲+18.6

2025

21

Sep 28
12

Oct 02
0

Oct 12
36

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
53

Nov 02
41

Nov 09
24

Nov 16
40

Nov 24
26

Nov 30
21

Dec 14
20

Dec 22
22

Dec 28
9

Jan 03
0

Jan 11
4

Jan 17
2026

31

Sep 13
51

Sep 20
50

Sep 24
62

Oct 05
?

Oct 12

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 35.5

Home 53% 9/17 · avg 44.1
Away 39% 9/23 · avg 33.7
vs BAL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 25.5 45% 9/20
O 30.5 40% 8/20
O 35.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 40.5 25% 5/20
O 45.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.4#30
Yds/Carry3.6#27
Rush TD0.8#12
Targets7.2#2
Rec Yds35.6#10

RBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main RB who faced BAL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.6

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tony Pollard	48	57.7	-17%
Sep 27	Javonte Williams	98	44.5	+120%
Sep 20	Travis Etienne	25	51.5	-51%
Sep 13	Jonathan Taylor	98	85.0	+15%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.6 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%9.8 yds
Short	36%6.7 yds	18%6.4 yds	28%5.9 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.8 yds#2	5%16.8 yds#11	7%15.6 yds#3
Short	31%5.3 yds#23	17%5.7 yds#27	35%5.3 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	43%2.0 yds	43%3.2 yds	14%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	4	6.2	25	27.7%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	4	4.5	18	21.1%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	4	3.2	13	14.2%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	4	2.2	9	9.7%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	4	1.8	7	7.2%
7	Zachariah Branch WR	4	1.5	6	6.3%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	2	1.0	2	4.1%
9	Brian Robinson RB	4	0.8	3	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 35.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	62	Over	29.5	24 (42%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	50	Over	24.5	19 (27%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	51	Over	25.5	33 (48%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	31	Under	19.5	15 (25%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	4	Under	6.5	15 (25%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	0	Under	12.5	7 (12%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	9	Under	9.5	6 (14%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	22	Under	22.5	11 (15%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	20	Under	22.5	10 (15%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	21	Under	25.5	12 (16%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	26	Under	17.5	14 (21%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	40	Over	41.5	12 (17%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	24	Under	20.5	16 (29%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	41	Over	45.5	14 (22%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	53	Over	15.5	9 (14%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	0	Under	14.5	2 (4%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	36	Over	25.5	17 (25%)
2025-10-12	6	@ TB	0	Under	—	5 (7%)
2025-10-02	5	@ LA	12	Under	—	12 (14%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	21	Under	—	10 (15%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 35.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.