NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cam Ward QB

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

189.5 Pass Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 48%10/21 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 181.5
Graph avg: 185.5
Graph median: 183.052–265
Over the close: 67%2/3

2026 per game

Pass Yds181.5▼-4.9

Att29.8▼-2.0

Cmp%63.0%▲+3.2

Pass TD0.8▼-0.1

INT0.5▲+0.1

Rush Yds14.2▲+4.9

Snaps56.8▼-2.5

Snap %100.0%▲+5.4

2025

112

Sep 07
175

Sep 14
219

Sep 21
108

Sep 28
265

Oct 05
222

Oct 12
255

Oct 19
259

Oct 26
145

Nov 02
194

Nov 16
256

Nov 23
141

Nov 30
117

Dec 07
170

Dec 14
228

Dec 21
251

Dec 28
52

Jan 04
2026

140

Sep 13
183

Sep 20
181

Sep 27
222

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 189.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 198.8
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 170.8
vs HOU 50% 1/2 · avg 151.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 169.5 67% 14/21
O 179.5 57% 12/21
O 189.5 Today 48% 10/21
O 199.5 43% 9/21
O 209.5 43% 9/21

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds239.4#12
Yds/Att7.2#13
Cmp%65.0%#13
Pass TD1.7#9
Pass Att33.1#11

QBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main QB who faced HOU this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+30.0

Avg diff %+18%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Dak Prescott	335	261.5	+28%
Sep 27	Daniel Jones	235	173.0	+36%
Sep 20	Joe Burrow	207	321.3	-36%
Sep 13	Josh Allen	334	235.0	+42%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%6.8 yds	2%12.0 yds	7%15.6 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	11%4.8 yds	42%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 21 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 189.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	222	Over	187.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	181	Under	178.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	183	Under	186.5	53 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	140	Under	—	50 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	52	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	251	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	228	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	170	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	117	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	141	Under	—	59 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	256	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	194	Over	—	59 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	145	Under	—	47 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	259	Over	—	71 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	255	Over	—	53 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	222	Over	—	61 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	265	Over	—	67 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	108	Under	—	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	219	Over	—	70 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	175	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	112	Under	—	57 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 190.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.