NFL Prop Research

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Game logs through Oct 8, 2026 · 170 players

Sam Darnold QB

SEA vs SF ·

230.5 Pass Yds O -121U -111
Hit rate · All 63%26/41 Odds imply 51.0% Over
Season avg
186.7
Graph avg
240.1
Graph median
244.013–379
Over the close
65%13/20
2026 per game
Pass Yds186.7â–¼-49.3
Att23.0â–¼-5.4
Cmp%65.2%â–¼-1.5
Pass TD2.0â–²+0.5
INT1.0â–²+0.3
Rush Yds3.7â–¼-1.8
Snaps44.0â–¼-16.6
Snap %70.0%â–¼-26.2
Sam Darnold passing yards by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 230.5.
  1. 2024
    268
  2. 181
  3. 275
  4. 179
  5. 259
  6. 240
  7. 290
  8. 241
  9. 246
  10. 330
  11. 235
  12. 347
  13. 231
  14. 246
  15. 377
  16. 166
  17. 245
  18. 2025
    150
  19. 295
  20. 218
  21. 242
  22. 341
  23. 295
  24. 213
  25. 330
  26. 178
  27. 279
  28. 244
  29. 128
  30. 249
  31. 271
  32. 270
  33. 147
  34. 198
  35. 124
  36. 346
  37. 202
  38. 2026
    13
  39. 379
  40. 168
  41. ?

Showing the latest 40 of 41 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 230.5

  • Home 52% 11/21 · avg 228.0
  • Away 75% 15/20 · avg 252.8
  • vs SF 25% 1/4 · avg 185.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

  • O 210.5 68% 28/41
  • O 220.5 63% 26/41
  • O 230.5 Today 63% 26/41
  • O 240.5 56% 23/41
  • O 250.5 39% 16/41

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SF

What SF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass YdsYds/AttCmp%Pass TDPass Att
  • Pass Yds212.6#21
  • Yds/Att6.4#22
  • Cmp%64.2%#14
  • Pass TD1.2#23
  • Pass Att33.0#12

QBs vs SF · 2026

Each main QB who faced SF this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.8
Avg diff %+6%
Beat their average75% (3/4)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 04 Bo Nix214201.7+6%
Sep 27 Jacoby Brissett280179.3+56%
Sep 20 Malik Willis197171.7+15%
Sep 10 Matthew Stafford155344.7-55%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep4%5.0 yds3%11.7 yds8%15.9 yds
Short32%6.9 yds19%7.4 yds32%6.7 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SF defense

SF defense: Throws SF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep6%5.4 yds#293%15.8 yds#1610%11.0 yds#15
Short34%7.0 yds#512%4.4 yds#3235%4.8 yds#26

Throws SF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep4%7.0 yds3%12.0 yds9%14.2 yds
Short35%6.4 yds19%7.7 yds31%6.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Target share · SEA 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR410.54237.3%
2Rashid Shaheed WR43.81514.3%
3AJ Barner TE43.81511.8%
4Cooper Kupp WR43.01210.3%
5Jadarian Price RB32.377.6%
6George Holani RB42.086.0%
7Emanuel Wilson RB41.256.0%
8Tory Horton WR22.045.8%
9Elijah Arroyo TE11.013.8%
10Brady Russell RB31.033.5%

Game log · 41 games

DateWkOppPass Ydsvs 230.5CloseSnaps
2026-10-044vs LAC168Under233.560 (100%)
2026-09-273@ WAS379Over219.567 (100%)
2026-09-091vs NE13Under228.55 (10%)
2026-02-0822 (P)@ NE202Under231.572 (100%)
2026-01-2521 (P)vs LA346Over233.567 (100%)
2026-01-1720 (P)vs SF124Under215.547 (89%)
2026-01-0318@ SF198Under180.569 (100%)
2025-12-2817@ CAR147Under140.566 (100%)
2025-12-1816vs LA270Over240.568 (100%)
2025-12-1415vs IND271Over245.560 (100%)
2025-12-0714@ ATL249Over235.553 (87%)
2025-11-3013vs MIN128Under140.564 (96%)
2025-11-2312@ TEN244Over234.548 (100%)
2025-11-1611@ LA279Over250.584 (100%)
2025-11-0910vs ARI178Under267.556 (90%)
2025-11-029@ WAS330Over—48 (94%)
2025-10-207vs HOU213Under—72 (100%)
2025-10-126@ JAX295Over234.555 (100%)
2025-10-055vs TB341Over227.561 (100%)
2025-09-254@ ARI242Over190.566 (100%)
2025-09-213vs NO218Under—39 (68%)
2025-09-142@ PIT295Over273.565 (100%)
2025-09-071vs SF150Under206.552 (100%)
2025-01-1319 (P)@ LA245Over—74 (100%)
2025-01-0518@ DET166Under—65 (100%)
2024-12-2917vs GB377Over—72 (100%)
2024-12-2216@ SEA246Over—66 (100%)
2024-12-1615vs CHI231Over—77 (100%)
2024-12-0814vs ATL347Over—58 (97%)
2024-12-0113vs ARI235Over—53 (100%)
2024-11-2412@ CHI330Over—69 (97%)
2024-11-1711@ TEN246Over—73 (100%)
2024-11-1010@ JAX241Over—84 (100%)
2024-11-039vs IND290Over—73 (100%)
2024-10-248@ LA240Over—50 (100%)
2024-10-207vs DET259Over—60 (100%)
2024-10-065vs NYJ179Under—72 (99%)
2024-09-294@ GB275Over—68 (100%)
2024-09-223vs HOU181Under—61 (97%)
2024-09-152vs SF268Over—54 (100%)
2024-09-081@ NYG208Under—55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 230.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 17m ago.