NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Daniel Jones QB

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

208.5 Pass Yds O -115U -113

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 188.5
Graph avg: 224.2
Graph median: 220.060–342
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Pass Yds188.5▼-50.0

Att33.0▲+3.5

Cmp%63.6%▼-4.3

Pass TD0.8▼-0.7

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds5.2▼-7.4

Snaps64.0▲+5.8

Snap %100.0%▲+8.5

2024

264

Oct 28
174

Nov 03
190

Nov 10
2025

272

Sep 07
316

Sep 14
228

Sep 21
262

Sep 28
212

Oct 05
212

Oct 12
288

Oct 19
272

Oct 26
342

Nov 02
255

Nov 09
181

Nov 23
201

Nov 30
60

Dec 07
2026

166

Sep 13
210

Sep 20
235

Sep 27
143

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 208.5

Home 57% 8/14 · avg 220.4
Away 62% 8/13 · avg 218.4
vs PIT 100% 2/2 · avg 303.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 188.5 75% 15/20
O 198.5 70% 14/20
O 208.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 218.5 50% 10/20
O 228.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds241.1#11
Yds/Att7.9#4
Cmp%66.4%#7
Pass TD1.6#14
Pass Att30.4#25

QBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main QB who faced PIT this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+16.9

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average33% (1/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Deshaun Watson	268	195.7	+37%
Sep 27	Joe Burrow	282	296.3	-5%
Sep 20	Drake Maye	208	215.3	-3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.2 yds	5%19.2 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	35%6.4 yds	15%6.3 yds	33%4.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 208.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	143	Under	222.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	235	Over	210.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	210	Over	215.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	166	Under	231.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	60	Under	221.5	16 (23%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	201	Under	225.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	181	Under	195.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	255	Over	225.5	77 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	342	Over	275.5	78 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	272	Over	260.5	47 (89%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	288	Over	275.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	212	Over	225.5	59 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	212	Over	232.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	262	Over	240.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	228	Over	211.5	50 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	316	Over	351.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	272	Over	261.5	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CAR	190	Under	—	75 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs WAS	174	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-10-28	8	@ PIT	264	Over	—	72 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 212.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 10m ago.